Coface: the number of insolvent firms is rising. 2026 forecasts revised upwards
Global insolvencies are expected to rise by 6 per cent this year, more than double the initial estimates. In Italia, the increase is more moderate, whilst the United States, France and Japan top the list
(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Since the start of 2026, corporate insolvencies have risen by 12% globally, driven by North America (+22%). And by the end of the year, an overall annual increase of 6% is forecast, more than double the initial projections. This is according to the latest analysis by Coface, one of the world’s leading providers of credit insurance and commercial risk management, which highlights how these figures demonstrate a growing deterioration in the global economic climate.
“The rise in insolvencies globally highlights just how much geopolitical tensions, rising costs and pressure on margins can rapidly affect the stability of businesses,” comments Ernesto De Martinis, CEO of Coface Mediterranean & Africa Region and Board Member, explaining that “SMEs, which are less diversified and more exposed to fluctuations in liquidity, are particularly vulnerable. For companies operating in international markets, it is therefore essential to monitor the financial soundness of their business partners, their ability to manage rising costs and the resilience of demand throughout the entire value chain, in order to prevent critical issues and ensure business continuity.”
The economic slowdown
The global business environment has weakened significantly in recent months, as the economic consequences of the conflict in Iran begin to affect business activity. The 12% rise in insolvencies recorded at the start of 2026, including a 22% increase in North America, illustrates the scale of the ongoing shock and the rapid deterioration of the situation for businesses. This trend is fuelled by recent geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, the effects of which are manifesting themselves in a rise in supply costs, greater volatility in energy prices and growing uncertainty regarding investment decisions.
Upward revisions for 2026, a more moderate increase in Italia
Against this backdrop, Coface is significantly revising its insolvency forecasts for 2026. Global insolvencies are now expected to rise by around 6%. GThe most significant increases are forecast for the United States (+8%), France (+8%) and Japan (+7%), whilst Germany and the Netherlands are expected to see increases of around 5%. More moderate increases, of between 2% and 3%, are expected in Spain, Italia and the United Kingdom
The issue of interest rates
In an already fragile environment, financing conditions continue to weigh on businesses. Despite the start of a cycle of monetary easing, interest rates remain high following several years of monetary tightening, keeping the cost of borrowing persistently high. This constraint is particularly significant given that businesses are entering this phase with historically high levels of debt. Consequently, even small changes in financing conditions can have a disproportionate impact: a rise of just 25 basis points in lending rates would be sufficient to accelerate global defaults once again, bringing their growth back to levels close to those observed in 2025. The persistence of high interest rates therefore acts as an aggravating factor in an already deteriorating environment, limiting companies’ ability to refinance their debt and absorb further shocks.
