Raw materials

Coffee, companies' earnings under pressure. Lavazza: critical situation for the future

The two-day meeting of producers of the Italian coffee committee of Unione Italiana food kicks off. They are facing a 'perfect storm' between expensive raw materials, logistical blocks and new European regulations that threaten to undermine international competitiveness

by Maria Teresa Manuelli

27 November 2025

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

The Perfect Storm on Coffee
The wheezing of a 5 billion giant
Evolution of consumption
EU standards: sustainability vs. competitiveness
Company resilience strategies

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

A perfect storm made up of financial speculation, climate crisis in producing countries, logistical blockades and new European regulations that threaten to strangle the competitiveness of Italian companies, with the latter seeing their profit margins increasingly under pressure, amid skyrocketing prices for green coffee - with record increases for both arabica and robusta - and stalled consumption.
This is the picture drawn by the Italian Coffee Committee of Unione Italiana Food, in view of the two-day event at Palazzo Pucci in Florence that brings together the top management of 65 companies representing about 80% of the national market.

"Coffee is a much-loved product, but also a very fragile one. At the moment it is threatened by many factors," comments Giuseppe Lavazza, President of the Committee, describing a situation in which "the combination of these phenomena has caused a record price increase for both varieties of green coffee and consequently an explosion in the supply costs of the entire sector with severe liquidity problems and shrinking margins. Downstream, there is aprogressive across-the-board decrease in consumption due to the public's attempt to adapt their purchasing habits to the new market scenario'.

The perfect storm over coffee

The crisis has multiple and interconnected origins. Firstly, a prolonged decrease in the volume of harvests from the main producing countries, such as Brazil and Vietnam, which alone supply more than half of the 655 thousand tonnes of coffee imported annually from Italy. This is compounded by massive speculative activity, fuelled by dwindling stocks of green coffee at Europe's main stock exchanges and an uncertain outlook on weather trends.

But it does not end there. Serious logistical problems, such as the impassability of the Suez Canal through which much of the coffee destined for Europe transits, have further complicated supplies. Looming overhead is the threat of very high tariffs on coffee, both green and roasted, from the US administration.

The outlook is not comforting: 'The forecast for the coming months does not look any better: coffee will continue to travel at very high prices and demand will be characterised by further uncertainties,' explains Lavazza.

The wheezing of a 5 billion giant

Yet despite these threats, the overall numbers in the sector continue to be record-breaking, making the risk of seeing an Italian industrial excellence compromised even more worrying. According to elaborations by Unione Italiana Food on Istat and NielsenIQ data, Italy produced in 2024 over 430 thousand tons of coffee, between roasted and soluble, confirming itself as the second roasted coffee producing country in the European Union and the fifth soluble coffee producer. A result made possible by the approximately one thousand roasting plants of excellence distributed throughout the peninsula, which generated a total turnover of 5 billion euro.

Domestic consumption confirms the deep connection between Italians and this drink. In 2024, over 280,000 tonnes of coffee were consumed in Italy, with per capita consumption rising to 4.8 kg per year, equivalent to 792 cups of espresso per person. Consumption remains predominantly domestic:out of 100 cups, 72 are consumed within the walls of the home, while the remaining 28% comes from consumption outside the home in bars, restaurants and hotels.

Italy exported 300 thousand tonnes of coffee last year, of which 5,700 tonnes were soluble. For roasted coffee, the main destinations are Germany, France, Poland, the United States and the United Kingdom. For soluble, France, the Philippines and Bulgaria lead the ranking.

Evolution of consumption

It is also interesting to note how the consumption habits of Italians are changing. In 2024 there is a significant increase in mono-portioned at the expense of ground coffee. Capsules and pods grew by 13% in volume, from 20.6% in 2023 to 24% in 2024, while ground coffee contracted by 6% in volume, dropping from 67.6% to 64%, although it remains the preferred choice of Italians. This is followed by coffee beans with 8% and soluble coffee with 4% of the preferences.

In terms of imported varieties, Robusta accounted for one-third of imports while Arabica accounted for two-thirds of the total, with Brazil and Vietnam supplying more than half of national requirements.

EU Standards: Sustainability vs. Competitiveness

As if the raw material crisis were not enough, the sector is also burdened by what Lavazza calls 'the heavy uncertainty due to the contradictory and stunted progress of the European regulations related to the Green Deal'. In particular, the new Packaging Regulation (Ppwr) and the European Regulation on Deforestation (Eudr) are central issues discussed during the Assembly, together with the regulatory framework on contaminants and pesticides.

The two regulations are 'profoundly redefining the framework in which coffee companies operate, creating great uncertainty and instability'. The industry's position is not one of closure with respect to sustainability objectives: 'We are well aware of the environmental objectives that these regulations are intended to pursue, we have been active on these aspects for some time and we fully share them,' Lavazza pointed out. 'However,it is also necessary to recognise the complexity of the proposed regulations and the repercussions on our sector. In particular, we are concerned about the impact they could have on the competitiveness of Italian coffee companies, even compared to global competitors, especially when the regulations do not fully take into account the specificities of the coffee chain'.

Company resilience strategies

Despite the gloomy outlook, Italian coffee companies are not giving up. "Italian companies in the sector, with a great sense of responsibility, are gearing up to try to overcome a difficult and complex moment wherefor some time now all resources and reserves have been put into play to ensure business continuity and service quality," Lavazza concludes.

The Committee Assembly will also include a technical conference with Areté - The Agri-Food Intelligence Company, dedicated to the trend of the coffee raw material, as part of the two-day event of discussion, analysis of market trends and in-depth analysis of the main European and international regulatory dossiers. A crucial moment for a sector that, while representing Made in Italy excellence with its 65 member companies through the Committee chaired by Lavazza, is facing one of the most complex challenges in its recent history.