Retail decline: 460,000 vacant shops in Italia (16.9 per cent of the total)
Confcommercio-Istituto Tagliacarne analysis: a loss of 4.4 billion euros a year for the Italian economy
Key points
Abandoned commercial premises and risk of urban desertification for Italian cities. This is the scenario outlined by the estimate carried out by Confcommercio in collaboration with the Istituto Tagliacarne: by 2025, the number of vacant shops across the country will reach 458,000, equivalent to 17 per cent of the total supply of commercial premises.
Clothing and footwear hardest hit
A structural crisis that is affecting the country unevenly, with particularly acute problems in the small retail sector and the services sector. Small non-food retailers are paying the highest price for this economic transformation, whilst the ‘vacancy rate’ is reaching particularly severe peaks in certain specific sectors: amongst traditional shops, clothing, footwear and household goods are recording closure rates of over 20%.
The situation is more serious in the South
The regional analysis reveals a clear geographical divide. The phenomenon is significantly more pronounced in the South, where it reaches 19.4 per cent, compared with the North-East, which has the lowest rate at 13.8 per cent. On average, between 2012 and 2023, the period during which commercial premises remained unused was calculated at as much as 7.2 years.
The economic impact
Based on an average annual rent estimated by the Property Market Observatory at approximately 16,000 euros at current prices, each vacant shop generates a total loss of revenue of 116,000 euros over the entire period it remains vacant. For the Italian economy as a whole, this translates into a staggering total loss of 53 billion euros, equivalent to approximately 4.4 billion euros per year, a figure representing 0.2 per cent of Gross Domestic Product.
Proposals at the “inCittà 2026” forum in Bari
Proposals to address general conditions relating to liveability, safety, attractiveness and quality of life will be the focus of the second edition of the “inCittà 2026” forum, scheduled to take place in Bari on 29 and 30 October. The event will provide a crucial opportunity for discussion on pressing issues such as property market pressures, urban depopulation, policies for the local economy and the role of various institutions.
