Retail

Trade, investments up to 35 billion by 2025

Scenari Immobiliari's forecasts follow the sector's trend in Europe in 2024, with 30 billion euro volumes

3' min read

3' min read

The European and Italian commercial real estate market is showing signs of growth and resilience, with investment volumes expected to reach up to €35 billion in 2025. This is what emerges from the new Report 2025 on the commercial real estate market in Europe and Italy by Scenari Immobiliari, presented in Milan during the conference "The other side of the coin - Retail: from high street success to opportunities in secondary markets" on Wednesday 7 May.

In 2024, the volume of business investment in Europe reached EUR 30 billion, with the UK leading the way (EUR 7.5 billion), followed by Germany (6.7), France (4.5), Italy (2.6) and Spain (2.5). By 2025, an increase of 20 per cent is estimated, driven by a possible rate cut by the ECB, falling inflation and increased household purchasing power.

Loading...

European high streets are once again attracting capital, benefiting from the boom in tourism and the reconversion of leasing models, which are now more flexible. Well-positioned, modern shopping centres remain attractive, thanks to more competitive yields compared to other asset classes.

The Italian market

.

In Italy too, 2024 marked a clear recovery, despite the abrupt halt recorded for real estate developments within the city of Milan: almost 2.6 billion euro invested, more than three times as much as in 2023. And 2025 is off to a good start: in the first three months, €550 million has already been allocated, thanks to major transactions on outlets in Tuscany and Liguria and high street properties in Milan and Florence. It is the best first quarter in the last five years.

As far as turnover is concerned, some EUR 8.7 billion was recorded, an increase of more than 40% compared to 2023. The large commercial areas (Gsc) are again the protagonists, but also the shopping streets - from Monte Napoleone to Via Roma in Turin - show a positive dynamic, interrupting a ten-year trend that favoured out-of-town areas.

According to Scenari Immobiliari, vacancy remains under control on the main high streets. Rome stands out with rates below 10%, although Galleria Alberto Sordi is still undergoing a revival. Milan continues to transform, with Via Montenapoleone leading the global luxury rankings. However, the secondary streets of the Lombard capital show a slight increase in vacant units.

Florence maintains a high occupancy in the central streets, while Venice surprises with an almost total absence of vacant premises in the most prized areas. Naples improves, with vacancy below 7% in the top streets and encouraging signs for the side streets as well. Bologna and Turin remain stable, but have yet to realise the full potential of their tourist attractiveness.

New strategies for hybrid retail

.

"The investment strategies of institutional operators are constantly evolving," commented Francesca Zirnstein, managing director of Scenari Immobiliari, "and are developing innovative leasing models that do not focus exclusively on physical sales space but include higher value-added real estate services, digital communication tools and strategic marketing partnerships. Even for high streets conventional leasing models are now obsolete, replaced by flexible agreements between landlords and tenants that represent an opportunity, not only for emerging and smaller brands to occupy the rare vacant spaces available along the main shopping streets, but also for innovation, vibrancy and dynamism. Despite the continuous development and spread of e-commerce, which requires operators to continually adapt and invest in digitalisation, what was recorded in 2024 consolidates the trend, already noted in the last edition of the report, of a return to purchasing at the physical shop after the exponential growth of the pandemic period".

The return to the physical shop, after the boom of e-commerce during the pandemic, is confirmed: in 2024 retail locations grew by 0.6% and sales values by 0.4% (Gsc) and 0.6% (shops). The most attractive returns are to be found in Northern Italy, but Central and Southern Italy also show improving dynamics.

Copyright reserved ©
Loading...

Brand connect

Loading...

Newsletter RealEstate+

La newsletter premium dedicata al mondo del mercato immobiliare con inchieste esclusive, notizie, analisi ed approfondimenti

Abbonati