Companies cope with the crisis, loans up and riskiness stable

The resilience of default rates in June 2025 compared to December 2024 is certainly good news for the Italian corporate system, which, despite the international context of great uncertainty, shows good resilience, with credit risk stable at 3%, a percentage still well below the pre-Covid average (over 4%).

The figure emerges from Crif's latest periodic Observatory on businesses, which also highlights another positive element, namely the 13% increase in the amounts disbursed by banks to companies in the first half of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. A confirmation of the trend that began in the early months of the year, mainly as an effect of the interest rate reductions implemented by the European Central Bank, which have made possible better credit access conditions.

But there is more: if the cut in interest rates is certainly the main factor stimulating the demand for and granting of financing, no less decisive was - especially in the first quarter - the somewhat paradoxical effect of American tariffs. In this case too (as in the case of exports, for example), the need to stockpile inventories in view of the introduction of the new customs tariffs has increased demand from US manufacturers and importers, pushing Italian supplier companies to increase investments to meet this demand. "The type of financing requested confirms this interpretation," explains Luca D'Amico, CEO of Crif Ratings. "We observe a 24.5% increase in unsecured mortgages and loans, the type of disbursements needed to cover both net working capital management and investments.

Despite the difficult context, therefore, the Italian entrepreneurial system shows good dynamism and the ability to face the crisis and the major transformations taking place by investing in its own future. "Obviously, we will have to see what happens in the next few months to assess the real impact of the international situation, in particular the effect of tariffs, which could be very heavy on some sectors in particular," D'Amico points out.

In the second half of the year, Crif estimates a growth in credit riskiness, albeit moderate, with a rate that could reach 3.3-3.4% and rise moderately in 2026, reaching close to 4% by the end of next year. "However, we are still in a safety zone," explains D'Amico, "but we must not let our guard down, also because the situation is very different from sector to sector. Also as regards disbursement, the expectation is for further growth throughout 2025 and part of 2026, mainly due to the deferred effect of monetary policies, albeit with appreciable differences between sectors.