Italy seeks 3.7 million workers among graduates and technicians by 2029

The great transformations taking place in the world of work, starting with the digital and green revolutions, are beginning to set the pace. From 2025 to 2029, companies will be on the hunt for science and technology degrees, technical diplomas and professional qualifications, and with some urgency. In fact, the total need is between 2.3 and 2.6 million profiles, depending on the macroeconomic scenario considered (whether less or more favourable).

In all, private and public employers will need to hire between 3.3 and 3.7 million workers over the five-year period. Every year, therefore, the doors of employment will open wide for 247/268 thousand graduates or those with an Its Academy qualification (38% of the total calculated as the average of the two scenarios), for 185,000-216,000 workers with technical and vocational secondary education (five-year diplomas, 49.5%) and for 125,000-146,000 vocational education and training diplomas (four-year or three-year IeFP, 12.5% of the total). In short, as recounted in the 'Forecasts of employment and professional requirements in Italy in the medium term (2025-2029)', drawn up as part of Excelsior, carried out by Unioncamere and the Ministry of Labour, which our newspaper is able to anticipate, engineers, computer scientists, economists/statisticians, mathematicians, physicists, Its Academy graduates, mechanical experts, logistics and fashion technicians, just to mention the profiles most sought after by the production sectors (those, to be clear, that make GDP grow), will be needed.

The point, which is also one of the sorest buttons for Italy grappling with a high birth rate, is that our school and academic courses are unlikely to be able to churn out as many of the required scientific-technological skills in the same time frame. The scenarios are clear: in total, the number of young people with a tertiary education qualification should be sufficient (260,000 per year are expected - based on a demand of between 247,000 and 268,000), but in some areas the shortage will be significant. For Stem (Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics) degrees it is estimated that there could be a shortage of between 9,000 and 18,000 each year, mainly with an engineering background and in mathematical, physical and computer sciences. For economics and statistics, the shortage could be 12-17 thousand. For the medical-sanitary address it would be 7-8 thousand. A shortage of supply is also expected for technical-professional secondary education. It is estimated that there will be a shortage of between 6,000 and 32,000 young people per year with a five-year degree, particularly in the fields of mechanics, mechatronics and energy, administration, finance, marketing, construction, environment and land and transport logistics.

Decidedly more pronounced will be the mismatch related to the IeFP pathways, with an offer that will only be able to cover about half of the needs. In fact, between 125,000 and 146,000 young people will be sought, while the supply will barely reach 70,000.

Certainly, also thanks to the push of the NRP and the commitment of businesses, something is moving, with an initial increase in enrolments in Stem, secondary and tertiary courses (now, however, we need to continue along this path).