The analysis

Confcommercio: ‘GDP set to grow by 0.9% in 2026; the economy is holding up, but investment needs to be boosted’

President Sangalli: “Despite international tensions, the Italian economy is proving more resilient than expected”

by Pietro Menzani

8 June 2026

Carlo Sangalli, Presidente Confcommercio Imagoeconomica

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Despite the instability of the international situation, the Italian economy is holding up. This is the conclusion of an analysis by Confcommercio’s Research Department on the country’s economic outlook, released ahead of the Confederation’s General Assembly scheduled for Wednesday 10 June in Rome, which Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will also attend.

According to the survey, despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and difficulties in sourcing essential raw materials such as gas, the outlook remains ‘favourable to growth’ and far from the spectre of recession. Indeed, the uncertainty does not appear to have led to a ‘widespread deterioration in consumer confidence’.

The macroeconomic outlook

Confcommercio’s forecasts for growth in the Italian economy and consumer spending are more optimistic than those of the main national and international institutions. The GDP, according to the Confederation, is set to rise by 0.9% in 2026, with consumption up by 1.2%, compared with increases of 0.5% and 1% respectively recorded in 2025.

Investment, on the other hand, which grew by 3.5% last year, is expected to rise by 1.8% in 2026, whilst exports are forecast to increase by 1%. The figures for 2027 appear less favourable: according to the study’s forecasts, exports will see an increase of 1.8%, but GDP by 0.7%, consumption by 0.8% and investment by 0.7%.

Confcommercio: nel 2025 spesa famiglie +239 euro, ma resta gap con 2007

The drivers of growth

The analysis reveals that there are numerous factors contributing to the resilience shown by the Italian economy. First and foremost, core inflation remains below the 2% threshold, demonstrating that ‘the production and distribution system has not fully passed on the effects of external shocks to prices’. Furthermore, ‘a labour market at historic highs’ is proving to be fundamental.

A still-strong propensity to spend also plays a crucial role, as it does not appear to have been unduly affected by the international crisis triggered by the war in the Persian Gulf. According to Confcommercio, the purchasing intentions recorded in May show that households maintain ‘a healthy willingness to spend’. In fact, 29% plan to buy household appliances, 24.5% furniture and almost 16% a car, whilst 23.5% are planning home renovations. The study therefore states that ‘although some sectors have not yet recovered to the levels reached in previous years, demand remains solid and confirms Italians’ willingness to invest in major durable goods and family projects’.

The role of tourism

See also tourism also helps to support consumption and economic growth in the country. Analysis by the Confcommercio Research Department shows that 38.5% of Italians have already booked their summer holidays. This is the highest figure recorded since 2020. The study also reveals that 30.9% will not be going on holiday, whilst 30.6% state that, given the uncertainty, they have not yet made any plans.

Confcommercio President Carlo Sangalli notes that ‘despite international tensions, the Italian economy is proving more resilient than expected. Uncertainty remains high, but employment is at an all-time high, core inflation is below 2% and households still have a healthy propensity to consume’ and concludes that ‘these are positive figures, but we need to boost investment and competitiveness to return to a path of more robust and sustainable growth’.