The analysis

Confcommercio: 'GDP to grow by 0.9 % in 2026, the economy is holding up but investments need to be strengthened'

President Sangalli: 'The Italian economy, despite international tensions, shows resilience beyond expectations'

by Pietro Menzani

8 June 2026

Carlo Sangalli, Presidente Confcommercio Imagoeconomica

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

2' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Despite the unstable international context, the Italian economy is holding up. This is supported by an analysis by the Confcommercio Studies Office on the country's economic outlook released ahead of the Confederation's General Assembly scheduled for Wednesday 10 June in Rome, which will also be attended by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni.

According to the survey, despite the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and difficulties in the supply of essential raw materials such as gas, the scenario remains 'favourable to growth' and far from the spectre of recession. Indeed, uncertainty does not seem to have translated into a 'widespread deterioration in consumer confidence'.

The Macroeconomic Framework

Confcommercio's estimates on the growth of the Italian economy and consumption are more optimistic than those of the main national and international institutions. The GDP, according to the Confederation, is set to increase by 0.9 per cent in 2026, consumption by 1.2 per cent, compared to increases of 0.5 per cent and 1 per cent respectively in 2025.

Investments, on the other hand, which showed a growth of 3.5 per cent last year, are expected to increase by 1.8 per cent in 2026, and exports by 1 per cent. Less favourable are the figures for 2027: according to the study's forecasts, exports will see an increase of 1.8 per cent, but GDP by 0.7 per cent, consumption by 0.8 per cent and investments by 0.7 per cent.

Confcommercio: nel 2025 spesa famiglie +239 euro, ma resta gap con 2007

The engines of growth

The analysis reveals that there are several factors contributing to the resilience shown by the Italian economy. First of all, core inflation that remains below the 2% threshold, demonstrating how "the production and distribution system has not fully transferred the effects of external shocks onto prices". Then there is "a labour market at an all-time high".

A still strong propensity to consume, which does not seem to have been overly affected by the international crisis triggered by the war in the Persian Gulf, also plays a crucial role. According to Confcommercio, the purchase intentions recorded in May testify that families maintain "a good willingness to spend". In fact, 29% plan to buy household appliances, 24.5% furniture and almost 16% a car, while 23.5% are planning home renovation work. The study therefore states that "although some sectors have not yet recovered the levels reached in previous years, demand remains solid and confirms Italians' willingness to invest in major durable goods and family projects".

The role of tourism

Finally, tourism also contributes to supporting consumption and the country's economic growth. An analysis by the Confcommercio Studies Office shows that 38.5% of Italians have already booked their summer holidays. This is the highest figure recorded since 2020. The study also reveals that 30.9% will not be going on holiday, while 30.6% say that, in the uncertainty, they have not yet made plans.

Confcommercio president Carlo Sangalli notes that "the Italian economy, despite international tensions, is showing resilience above expectations. Uncertainty remains high, but employment is at an all-time high, core inflation is below 2%, and households still have a good propensity to consume," and concludes that "these are positive figures, but investments and competitiveness need to be strengthened to find the path to more robust and lasting growth.