Confindustria: GDP at a standstill despite growing confidence and investment
Via dell'Astronomia Research Centre: export outlook remains negative
Italy's gross domestic product stands still, even though total inflation is moderate (+1.2%). On foreign markets, there remain two powerful brakes created by US tariffs and a weak dollar, which impact Italian exports and, together with uncertainty, have blocked the GDP dynamics in the third quarter. For the fourth quarter, positive elements are the recovery of confidence, linked to a more attenuated uncertainty, the return of oil prices and the growth of investments stimulated by the NRP. In this scenario, industry remains weak, services are doing better.
Export will remain weak or fall
This is what emerges from the Congiuntura Flash analysis, released by the Centro studi di Confindustria, which dedicates a focus to the gap between European industries, comparing Italy, France, Germany and Spain, highlighting the heterogeneous dynamics and differentiated prospects. For Italy, goods consumption will slowly improve, goods exports will remain weak, if not decline due to tariffs and the dollar. Much will depend, says the CSC, on the dynamics of investments, but there are no expectations of significant growth in production.
In Germany, on the other hand, the huge planned expenditure on infrastructure and defence will have a positive impact from 2026, reducing the gaps. For French industry, managing instability will be crucial. In Spain, competitiveness factors, such as energy, will not disappear in the short term and therefore an improved industrial dynamic is still expected.
Investments in growth
In our country, investments are expected to grow in the second half of the year: the confidence of capital goods companies rose in October and, after the drop in the summer months, that of construction companies as well. Household confidence is also on the rise, although retail sales fell by -0.5 per cent in September and the third quarter closed with a decline, -0.4 per cent. The increased confidence could reduce the propensity to save. The number of employed people rose again in September, +0.1 per cent in the third quarter.
As far as rates are concerned, the cut in the US is expected to continue between December and January, while the EU rates set by the ECB have been stuck at 2 per cent since June and no further cuts are expected.
