Conjuncture

Confindustria Genoa: 'The territory's economy grows

Despite wars and uncertainties, the entrepreneurial fabric holds up: positive figures for the second half of 2025 and decent forecasts for 2026

by Raoul de Forcade

(Merlofotografia)

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Wars, penalising exchange rates, tariffs (which have just been annulled by the US Supreme Court), uncertainty, and a lacklustre national context have not blocked Genoa's economy, which, despite everything, grew in the second half of 2025. This is revealed by the economic indicators presented today by Confindustria Genova and illustrated by the association's president, Fabrizio ferrari, and the head of the studies office, Giacomo Franceschini. Indicators that are almost all positive, including employment, which marks the highest tendential variation since 2022, marking a +1.6% compared to the second half of 2024. On the other hand, logistics and transport companies and terminal operators are slowing down.

Genoese companies' forecasts for the first six months of 2026 are 'moderately positive'. There are, said Ferrari, 'positive signs on almost everything, slight downturns on something, with shipbuilding and industrial manufacturing doing very well. Obviously there are sectors that are driving more and others less, but we don't see suffering anywhere. So the 'in spite of everything' that we have given, as a title, to the analysis, means that companies are responding positively, despite the international and geopolitical climate that we experience every day".

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Tariffs effect

On tariffs, before the news of the US Supreme Court decision arrived, Ferrari said that 'technically they have a long-term impact on companies, so we do not yet know if they will actually affect or how much they will affect Genovese companies; but we are following the issue very closely. It is clear that there may be a risk, especially for those companies that produce and export to the US products containing aluminium and steel, which are burdened with 50% tariffs'.

As far as economic data is concerned, according to the economic analysis, in the second half of last year, the turnover of industry and services grew by 1.7% to Italian customers and by 0.6% to foreign customers, with orders increasing (+0.1% from Italian customers and +1.7% from abroad). The manufacturing sector recorded +2.4% in production (+3% turnover in Italia, +1.8% from abroad and +3.5% orders from abroad) and was driven by shipbuilding and large engineering companies, with plant engineering recovering the drop in the first part of the year. "The food industry is also doing well," Franceschini pointed out.

Transport and Logistics Braking

The transport, logistics and energy sectors, on the other hand, are slowing down: turnover is down (-1.1% Italia and -1.2% abroad) although the impact on margins is slight, also offset by the increase in prices (+1.2), particularly among terminal operators, while they are almost at a standstill among energy distributors and in road transport. Employment, on the other hand, is growing (+2.7%). Positive signs also for the advanced tertiary sector (+1.6% turnover in Italia, stable turnover abroad) and private healthcare (+6.8% turnover and +1.8% services). Lastly, as far as tourism is concerned, turnover is growing towards Italian customers (+1.4%) and is stable, but slightly down, towards foreign customers (-0.2%), even if presences are decreasing (-4.2%), which will drop from 2.69 million in the second half of 2024 to 2.57 million in the second part of 2025.

Finally, the forecasts of Genoese companies for the first six months of 2026 are, as mentioned above, moderately positive. Overall turnover is expected to expand further - albeit still moderately - (+1.2%), although order intake is expected to move little (-0.1%). The export dynamic is expected to cool, albeit with a slight further increase (+0.5%), thanks to shipbuilding and engineering. The confirmation of growth, albeit moderate, the report concludes, "will continue to have positive effects on employment, which is expected to rise again (+0.6%)".

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