Study Centre

Confindustria: 'The scenario continues to deteriorate'

Consumption and services are at risk of slowing down, the only driver of industry output is for now Pnrr investment

by Nicoletta Picchio

20 May 2026

Navi cisterna alla fonda al largo dello Stretto di Hormuz, nei pressi di Bandar Abbas, in Iran APN

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

With the war in Iran, the scenario continues to deteriorate: oil remains overpriced because the truce in the Middle East has not reopened the Strait of Hormuz. As this shock continues, its impact on the economies is widening: inflation rises, also in Italia, household confidence falls even further and the decline extends to business confidence, and the credit channel risks coming to a standstill.

Theconsumption and services are at risk of slowing down, the only driver of industry production is, for now, the investments of the NRP: the coming months will be decisive in 'verifying the ability of the measures implemented to produce lasting results in terms of economic growth, administrative efficiency, and reduction of gaps' and that, in any case, Italia is among the best in the EU in terms of progress.

But on investment a slowdown is possible: economic data show a weakening in the two months of the war. In the first quarter, companies' requests for credit to finance investments dropped, due to the adverse scenario, although the rate did not rise, 3.38% in March. In April, the confidence of capital goods manufacturers dropped even more.

This is the picture that emerges from Congiuntura Flash of the Centro studi Confindustria, which dedicates a focus to the Pnrr. Oil, therefore, still expensive, 105 dollars a barrel in May. This war has less impact than the one in Ukraine on the price of gas: in May it was 46 euro kwh, but much higher than the 28 euro at the end of 2025. Inflation is rising, 2.7 per cent in April, energy prices +9.2 per cent year-on-year, while core prices are slowing down, +1.7 per cent. Markets expect the ECB to start raising rates in June, now at 2 per cent.

Employment increased by +0.1% in the first quarter, supporting real incomes a little, but household confidence continued to fall. As the war continues, foreigners' spending on tourism in Italia is at risk; services are at a standstill. Industry is holding up, but there is a worsening in sight: the PMI shows weaker demand and there are reductions in production expectations due to the war.

Export is resilient: in the first three months of 2026 Italian exports continued to grow, +4.0% in value over Q4 2025. In March, sales growth consolidated despite a slump in the Middle East, -52.5% trend from +15.2%, offset by +84% in Switzerland, +23.9% in China and the main EU countries.

In the Eurozone, industry is weak, with all dynamics negative in the first quarter, and services are suffering. The US economy is weakened, with a slowdown in the labour market, while China is not slowing down, with first-quarter GDP growing at +5% per annum.

As far as the Pnrr is concerned, as of 29 April 2026, 416 targets and objectives out of 575 have been achieved, more than 72% of the total planned, compared to an average of 50% for the other beneficiary countries. With the payment by May of the ninth instalment, the resources received would rise to EUR 166 billion, over 85% of the Plan's total allocation. However, the final phase of implementation appears to be more complex than the previous ones, since it mainly concerns infrastructure investments and interventions characterised by longer lead times and greater operational criticalities. Seventy per cent of the committed resources concern projects that have not yet been completed. The substantial evaluation of the Plan, says the CSC, remains open: the tools for assessing the actual outcomes and structural impacts on GDP, productivity, quality of public services, and territorial and social gaps are weak.