Conjuncture

Confindustria: scenario worsens, energy shock already in place

The Via dell'Astronomia Research Centre: for companies, the risk of energy bills ranging from +7 billion to +21 billion

by Nicoletta Picchio

20 April 2026

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Key points

21 billion energy bill if the war continues
The rate curve
Family Confidence Worsens
Negative expectations for companies
Exports, sales rebound in the US
Business fears

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Rising energy prices, falling confidence and expectations, rising sovereign rates: first impacts of war. Worsening scenario. These are the first words of the Congiuntura Flash analysis by the Centro studi di Confindustria. Oil prices are high, despite the fragile truce in the Middle East war. The impact of the energy shock can already be read in many data on the Italian economy: household confidence is falling, anticipating a slowdown in consumption; sovereign rates are rising; expectations on industry, which was trying to recover, are falling; services are also slowing down. Investments are holding up, which are still supported by the NRP in the first three months of 2026.

21 billion energy bill if war continues

If the war were to continue through 2026, the CSC estimates, with an average annual oil price of USD 140, companies would pay 21 billion more than in 2025 for energy and the incidence of energy costs on total costs would rise from 4.9% to 7.6%, an increase of 2.7 percentage points. This would reach around the critical levels already experienced in 2022 (8.3%), which would not be sustainable for our companies, which would see their competitiveness eroded. If the war were to end in June, with oil averaging $110 per year, assuming that pre-conflict trade flows resume and the capacity of the Gulf countries remains adequate to support world supply, Italian companies would find themselves paying more in energy bills 7 billion per year and the incidence of energy costs would be higher by one percentage point, rising from 4.9% in 2025 to 5.9 in 2026.

Returning to Congiuntura Flasch's analysis, the price of oil is +$40 on the December average; gas has moderated a little in April, after having risen in March almost twice as much as in December (€53 mwh on 28). The dollar is at 1.16 against the euro in April: this is not helping to dampen Eurozone energy price increases.

The rate curve

The war is widening spreads and reversing the course of sovereign rates in Europe. The Italian corporate rate is at 3.33% in February, but will rise, curbing credit. The ECB is expected to raise rates in the short term, from 2.00%, due to the already jump in inflation. In Italia it rose less, +1.7% because prices of some services fell while energy rose.

Family Confidence Worsens

On investments the indicators are stable for the first quarter, confidence in March remains unchanged, it increases in construction, although with lower expectations. With regard to consumption, household confidence fell sharply in March, with the risk of an increase in savings already in the first quarter, curbing consumption.

Negative expectations for companies

For industry, expectations are negative: in the first quarter, the expected decline is -0.5%, in March the Pmi is in the expansionary zone, 51.3 from 50.6, but activity is supported by a precautionary build-up of inventories in various sectors, in anticipation of price increases. Industrial business confidence is up modestly, but the impact of the war emerges in the sharp drop in production expectations.

A drop in demand is also expected in services: with the war in March the Sp-Pm index fell sharply into the recessionary zone, 48.8 from 52.3, reflecting the drop in demand. Business confidence rose little, expectations on orders worsened.

Exports, sales rebound in the US

As regards exports, goods exports rose again in February, +2.2% at constant prices, after a lull in January. Crucial was the rebound of sales in the USA, +8% trend after months of decline, concentrated on pharmaceuticals and other means of transport. The new tariffs from 24 February make Italian goods less competitive than before. A direct impact of the war is expected on the 22 billion exports to the Gulf countries and some critical supplies (aluminium, fertilisers).

In the Eurozone there are signs of distrust, uncertainty has risen to April 2025 levels. Forecasts for the USA are on the rise, while China is slowing down.

Fears of business

It is cost tensions that worry companies the most: in the survey of large companies associated with Confindustria, carried out between 18 and 25 March, respondents were asked to identify the main obstacles to conflict. Three factors emerged: cost of energy, for 25 per cent of respondents; transport and/or insurance costs, 21.9 per cent; cost of non-energy raw materials, 18.4 per cent. This item becomes more important in perspective, the first source of concern for companies, 20.7%, should the conflict continue. It is followed by the cost of energy, 19.4 per cent, and transport and/or insurance costs, 15.4 per cent. Further critical issues include obstacles to exports, 11.2%, and rising costs of semi-finished goods, 8.5% (10.3% with the war lasting more than a month).

The duration of the conflict weighs heavily. In a longer perspective of the duration of the war, there are also signs of increasing attention to the risks of input supply, i.e. volume shortages. Companies indicating criticality in the supply of raw materials increases from 7.4% to 11.3% (this factor becomes the fourth expected risk). With a long conflict, companies' concern for production sites in the Gulf countries involved also increases.