Conjuncture

Confindustria: scenario worsens, exports and consumption ballast industry

The via dell'Astronomia research centre: 9 out of 22 sectors are growing, pharmaceuticals and metals are doing well, cars and fashion are doing badly

by Nicoletta Picchio

23 February 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

The scenario worsens at the beginning of 2026. These are the first words of Congiuntura Flash, the economic analysis of the Centro studi Confindustria: exports and consumption weigh down industry, the impact of the energy decree is potentially positive. In Italia, after a good fourth quarter 2025 (+0.3% GDP), driven by NRP investments, household confidence improved in January and services accelerated. Industry remains volatile and the upturn slow, penalised by the more devalued dollar and still fragile consumption.

The high and rising cost of energy ($71 per barrel oil in February, gas in January at 33 euro Mwh) can fall substantially for households and businesses thanks to the government decree, if approved by the EU Commission.

The cost of credit is rising again: the rate paid by companies has exhausted the decline and reversed course, 3.58% in December from 3.38% in September. Signs for investments in plant and machinery remain favourable: in January, the confidence of manufacturing companies improved, particularly in capital goods, the confidence of construction companies worsened for the third consecutive month.

For consumption the start of the year is still slow: in December retail sales fell, -0.9 per cent in volume, almost cancelling out the growth in the fourth quarter, +0.1 per cent. In January, however, car purchases increased. Household confidence improved a little at the beginning of 2026, the number of employed people grew, however, by +0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter. Business confidence in trade fell sharply, although sales sentiment remained positive.

Services accelerate: in the first month of 2026 the HCOB-PMI, already in the expansionary zone, indicates a strengthening of the sector, business confidence also shows a robust increase.

For the industry there is a weak recovery: the fourth quarter 2026 remained positive, +0.9 per cent, although industrial production in December fell again, -0.4 per cent after +1.5 per cent. The recovery is fragile, because monthly data are very volatile and demand, from exports and consumption, remains weak. Even export is volatile: it grew in December, +0.6 percent, but fell in Q4, -1.9 percent. A rapid reconfiguration of trade emerged after the shocks: exports were driven by pharmaceuticals to the US, metals to Switzerland. Pharmaceuticals generated part of the jump in imports from China and the US. The outlook to January 2026 remains weak for foreign manufacturing orders, albeit slightly improving.

In the Eurozone there are signs of a timid recovery: in the fourth quarter of 2025 the area's GDP grew by 0.3 per cent and employment by 0.2 per cent. In the USA the economy is doing well but employment is weak, in India manufacturing is expanding.

The focus on industry

The paper devotes a focus to industry trends: still down, but something has changed. In 2025 there was a partial and weak recovery from the end of the downturn, but no clear reversal of the trend. In the average year there was a reduction in production, albeit small, -0.2 per cent, after the large fall of 2023-2024, -2.0 per cent and -4.0 per cent.

The number of sectors growing in 2025 has increased since 2024: they have risen from 4 to 9. But there is a long way to go: only 3 manufacturing sectors, out of 22, have grown in both 2024 and 2025, 12 have experienced declines in both 2024 and 2025, although the variation has been less extensive. Automotive and fashion are in trouble: they had two years of fall, although attenuated in 2025. For automotive, -10.3%, reasons include rising prices, uncertainty about standards, and increased imports. Chemicals show a bigger drop in 2025, -2.6%, than in 2024 due to structural issues.

The pharmaceutical industry, among the growth sectors, +3.8%, saw exports rise sharply, +28.5% year-on-year, the highest of all sectors, with a foreign surplus of EUR 11.4 billion. The growth in the USA, +54%, linked to the accumulation of stocks, stands out. The metallurgical, +4.0%, was also moderately supported in 2025 by exports. Food bucked the trend and did not fall, along with 'other transport equipment'.

There are hindering factors holding back all sectors, from expensive energy to the weak dollar, tariffs and thus declining exports of goods, high uncertainty, high household savings and thus sluggish consumption. On the other hand, lower interest rates compared to 2023, business credit that has restarted, and good investment dynamics are helping industry.

For 2026 the economic data for the first month suggest a slight improvement: the 2026 dynamic for manufacturing is moderate growth, returning to the positive sign after 3 negative years. This would be a partial recovery of lost levels. Not enough in some cases to heal recent losses, but at least the beginning of a positive path.