Industry

Construction, investments down. Contraction estimated at 7.2%

The dossier. With the end of the Superbonus, requests for renovations slow down. In 2023 more than 11 thousand interventions in Veneto for a total of 3.8 billion

by Valeria Zanetti

Lo spettro. Secondo quanto riportato dal dossier di Ance Veneto lo spettro è di un progressivo fermo dell’attività nei cantieri privati e, dopo il 2026, di quelli pubblici

4' min read

4' min read

The Superbonus also in 2023 confirmed itself as a decisive development driver for the construction system and the entire Veneto economy. According to the Enea-Mase monitoring data, during the year the interventions supported by the tax incentive for energy requalifications reached 11,759, for a total investment of over 3.8 billion euro. Since it came into force, the renovation incentive in the seven provinces has generated 59,588 openings of building sites for more than 11 billion in investments: 10,263 in condominiums (for more than 5.8 billion); 27,179 in single-family homes (for just under 3.2 billion) and 22,146 in detached properties (for more than 2 billion).

The information is contained in the publication Veneto Regional Construction Scenarios 2024, the first local dossier edited by Ance's Economic Affairs, Finance and Studies Centre, and paints a picture of the sector, which in terms of investments represents 10.7% of Veneto's GDP; in terms of employment, 17.2% of the industry's workforce (compared to 24.4% in Italy as a whole). The first three months of this year also indicate a further 3,180 new communications submitted to the Agenzia delle Entrate (Revenue Agency) by the 4 April deadline to benefit from the assignment of credit or discount on invoices for almost 1.3 billion, mostly the result of the 'carry-over' of works completed by December.

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At the regional level, the share of buildings subject to works aimed at improving energy performance - as at 31 March - stood at 7.4%, a value higher than the national average (5.8%). There are many studies and numbers certifying that Veneto is at the top of the national ranking of regions that have taken advantage of incentives for energy redevelopment.

According to Cgia di Mestre, 5.6 per cent of residential buildings (flats, small villas, terraced houses, etc.) made use of the Superbonus for efficiency improvements. More than any other region and therefore than the national average, at 4.1 per cent. Despite this," reflect the association of artisans and small businesses, "the State's expenditure per intervention in the area is among the lowest in the country, and therefore the value of the deductions requested is also less impactful. While the average investment in the seven provinces was Euro 194,896, only Sardinia and Tuscany (with Euro 187,413 and Euro 182,930) showed lower amounts (the Italian average is Euro 247,531).

According to the association that brings together building constructors, however, the construction sector will already be affected this year by the collapse in demand for extraordinary maintenance and redevelopment, due to the disappearance of the credit transfer and invoice discount, which prevent those who do not have adequate tax capacity from benefiting from what remains of the building bonus.

The drop in investments will amount to -7.2%, driven by the drastic decline in renovations and work on existing housing stock. The downsizing will only be partially offset by the public works segment, which is still supported by NRP resources. But tenders are beginning to be issued with dropper drops, mainly due to the difficulties of contracting authorities in the transition to digitalisation.

The spectre is of a progressive cessation of activity on private construction sites and, after 2026, on public ones. According to Ance, the repercussions will inevitably be felt on employment, which in recent years has marched at full speed. Data from the National Joint Committee for Construction Funds show an increase of +4.1% in the number of hours worked and +7.1% in the number of registered workers in Veneto in 2023. A positive balance that follows 2022 characterised by growth rates of +6.8% for hours worked and +10.3% for registered workers compared to 2021.

"We have just closed very positive balance sheets that show important margins and that it will be useful to use to strengthen the equity of the companies, because the first signal to give to the banks that finance us is that we believe in the company first, we do not share profits but look to future development," comments the president of Ance Veneto, Alessandro Gerotto, who points to the many challenges on the horizon. "Our companies must work under the banner of continuity, so that we can plan how we are going to repay the debt. But already this year market demand is declining. It is difficult to identify development trajectories with real estate that is not restarting due to prices that are still too high and mortgages that are unattainable,' he continues.

The builders' attention is therefore now focused on the regulations introduced by Europe with the Green House Directive, which could relaunch the sector. "Provided, however, that our government structures an industrial plan and gets the EU to advance the resources: with the 150 billion Euro Superbonus, we have only energetically upgraded 5% of the Italian housing stock. There is still a lot of work to be done,' Gerotto concludes.

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