Consumption: Confcommercio, in 2024 above pre-Covid levels, but slowing in almost all regions

Overall, consumption in 2024 exceeds the pre-Covid level by about 17 billion, but compared to 2023 it shows no signs of significant recovery (+0.5% compared to 1% in 2023) and is slowing down in all regions except Liguria and Umbria, where it grows by 7 and 4 tenths of a point respectively, and Molise where it is stable.

As far as GDP is concerned, the estimate is for a growth of 0.8% in 2024 (down from the +0.9% estimated in August) and at a territorial level, however, the South grows more than twice as fast as the North (+1.2% in 2024 against +0.5%), but consumption in the South shows greater weakness with +0.4% for 2024, against 0.5% in the North.

These are the main results that emerge from the Confcommercio Studies Office's analysis of regional economies. The wide gap between the two macro areas is confirmed by the data on GDP per capita, which registers a gap of more than EUR 18,000 (EUR 21,714 in the South against EUR 39,786 in the North), and by the weak demographic dynamics, which in the South represents a further element of structural criticality: the population of the South, in fact, has undergone a reduction of about 161,000 units between 2022 and 2024, against an increase of 125,000 units in the North, contributing to limiting the development potential of the southern regions.

This slowdown testifies to a still fragile economic fabric, despite the positive contribution of foreign tourism, which has supported demand in some regions of this area of the country. The updating of regional estimates of gross product and consumption in the area (the latter by both Italians and foreigners) and the statistical evidence relating to the first two quarters of 2024 confirm the feeling that, in Italy, the income-confidence-consumption circuit has somehow jammed: the higher real disposable incomes, due to the growth in employment, the effects of contractual renewals and the drastic drop in inflation, have not yet translated into higher consumption. This, Confcommercio indicates, is the weak point of the current economic situation.