Consumption outside the home, signs of distress in 2025 with declining inputs (-0.8%)

Signs of distress on the out-of-home consumption front. In 2025, traffic on the premises saw a -0.8% drop on the previous year, while turnover in terms of value saw growth linked solely to average price increases (+3%). The decline in admissions in public establishments is an evil shared by the main markets in Europe. According to a recent Circana survey, in the Ho.Re.Ca. markets of Italia, France, Germany, Spain and the UK, expenditure is growing at EUR 309 billion, but visits are down 10% compared to pre-pandemic. Consumer behaviour is driven by a clear trading down: a reduction in products purchased (-0.7%), a shift towards cheaper segments (-1.1%) and an obsessive focus on value for money. So many alarm bells partly due to the loss of purchasing power although there is no shortage of positive signs. Delivery is driving sales of products that are easily delivered to the home such as pizza and sushi, which are up 12%. New habits are emerging, with dining growing strongly (from 9.4% to 15.6% in nine years). Chain restaurants are doing well thanks to a more focused quality-price offer, with formats involving new consumers (GenZ). This is the snapshot of the world of out-of-home consumption that emerges from the International Horeca Meeting, the event entitled "Out-of-home consumption market between inflation and inflation. Trends and best practices to go beyond the crisis", organised by Italgrob, the Italian Federation of Ho.Re.Ca. distributors. According to data from the Italgrob Study Centre based on Circana data, the Ho.Re.Ca. market in Italia has a turnover of over 100 billion with 382 thousand points of consumption including restaurants, bars, pizzerias and hotels. At least 1.5 million people are employed, the majority of them women, and the sector has the merit of representing modes of consumption that dictate the Italian lifestyle, including Italian cuisine and the aperitif ritual. Yet in 2025 there will be a 5% increase in the consumption of tap water while alcoholic beverages will decline by 7%. It may be the increased focus on health and wellness that is causing low and non-alcoholic products to sprint (+13%) on the wave of novelty in this niche market, but the double-digit growth does not compensate for the drastic decline in higher value alcoholic beverages. However, Circana predicts a moderate recovery, with +3% of expenditure, and +0.9% of visits, while retail food service is expected to grow by +1.4% and quick service by +1% to drive growth. Data that are not only economic indicators, but represent a thermometer of the purchasing habits of Italian consumers.

"The Ho.Re.Ca. sector is a strategic component of the Italian real economy, generating employment and offering essential services. Its is a fundamental role of territorial protection and social cohesion, with the out-of-home sector confirming itself as a strategic resource to be valorised for the country's economy, work and quality of life,' recalls Antonio Portaccio, president of Italgrob. 'Today, the market is going through a structural stalemate: the number of visitors to venues is falling, while overall turnover is growing. The common denominator is well known: crisis, inflation, rising cost of living. As a sector, we are ready to discuss fiscal and regulatory policies that support SMEs, incentivise investments in sustainability and digitalisation, and reduce the bureaucratic burden. At the same time, the creation of a special register for Ho.Re.Ca. distributors, with formal recognition of their role in the supply chain, can no longer be postponed. If we know how to valorise a strategic resource such as the out-of-home sector, we will not simply have supported a sector but strengthened the country'.

An appeal resolved to the politicians in the audience including Mirco Carloni, president of the Chamber's Agriculture Commission, who said: 'Agribusiness is not only an economic fact: it also has a strong social value. The downward dynamics of consumption risk creating a supply chain that penalises those who work in it. On the contrary, we must aim for a growing supply chain, capable of generating employment, professionalism, value and wealth,' while Giorgio Salvitti, delegate of the Minister of Agriculture and Food Sovereignty and Forestry Francesco Lollobrigida added: 'The price increase, largely due to energy costs, remains a central issue and requires even more incisive action. However, the fiscal and regulatory measures adopted are making it possible to combat high prices and inflation, catching up with previous years and generating concrete effects on the real economy'.

As far as the near future is concerned, Marco Colombo, Emea Analytics Svp Circana, explains how 'The ability to forecast demand and adaptability to the new context become critical success factors. Not to be underestimated are the signs of positivity in some categories - such as energy drinks, carbonated drinks for mixology, alcoholic aperitifs - and the health trends of the low/no alcohol segments in beer, spirits and wine, which continue to expand: a phenomenon driven above all by consumers aged 18-34, who are more open to less alcoholic and wellness-conscious options. Expectations for 2026 are for marginal growth in volumes and consolidation of sales with inflation below one percentage point in the channel".