The analysis

Consumption at risk: fears lead to revised budgets

Vigilant and reactive Italians have changed their habits by cutting down on major purchases and non-essential expenditure

by Antonio Noto*

13 May 2026

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

Italians on the alert today, but it is tomorrow that is even more frightening. The fear is not so much in the present as in the short-term projection. Today the country appears vigilant, to some extent already adaptive; but it is over the coming months that a widespread fear thickens, deeper because it is considered plausible and, for this reason, even more incisive in behaviour.

Proactive Italians

Italians, in fact, are not reacting passively. A significant share declares that they have already modified their lifestyles: they are reducing non-essential expenses, postponing important purchases, limiting the use of the car and paying more attention to domestic energy consumption. This is a typical reaction during phases of uncertainty, a sort of 'preventive defence' that signals not only awareness of the risk, but also a certain capacity for adaptation matured in the crises of recent years, from the pandemic to inflation.

We are not, therefore, facing an unconscious or immobile public opinion. On the contrary, an attentive population emerges. However, this alertness is not enough to reassure. On the contrary, it coexists with a far more uneasy underlying feeling, with the idea that the worst is yet to come. This is where the figure becomes politically and economically relevant.

International crises - from geopolitical tensions to risks of energy instability, from possible disruptions in supply chains to threats to international trade - are obviously not perceived as fully unfolding events, but as evolving processes, with potentially worsening outcomes.

The energy question

The energy issue is the main cause for concern. The possibility of a more pronounced oil crisis, with effects on the availability and cost of energy, is not considered remote. This step is crucial: when a fear is perceived as plausible, it stops being merely emotional and becomes structured behaviour. And this is exactly what is observed.

Fear translates into negative expectations about prices, consumption and, ultimately, the ability of households to maintain their standard of living. This dynamic produces a paradoxical effect. While in the present the situation is still under control and there are only weak signs of emergency in everyday behaviour, the future is perceived as unstable and potentially critical. It is a time rift that profoundly affects the economic climate and individual choices.

Households react not only to what happens today, but above all to what they fear may happen tomorrow. Consequently, the propensity to save tends to grow, while that to consume contracts or, at least, is more carefully selected.

A pre-alarm phase

For the economic system, this means living with a domestic demand that risks weakening not so much due to current conditions, but negative expectations. It is a well-known mechanism. Perceptions can anticipate and, in some cases, amplify the effects of real crises. In this sense, the climate of uncertainty itself becomes an impact factor.

In short, the country is in a "pre-alarm" phase. There is not yet an overt crisis in everyday behaviour, but there is a widespread perception that this may materialise soon.

The point, then, is not simply that Italians are worried. They are. But above all, they believe it is credible that the situation could worsen in the coming months. And it is this belief, more than the fear itself, that today represents the real element of risk for the economy, because it directly affects spending decisions and thus the country's growth prospects.

*Director Noto Sondaggi