Europe-Gulf cooperation and the storm of war

Iran has so far launched thousands of drones and ballistic missiles against the territories of the monarchies, whose air defences, mainly American-supplied, are effectively intercepting most of the threats: however, the fragments cannot be eliminated and they do damage, sometimes injuring and killing. The point is that the attacks have been going on for almost a month now: to defend themselves, these countries use expensive systems such as the Patriot and, only Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, the THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defence).

The monarchies must therefore find more efficient and sustainable defence alternatives in proportion to the low cost of the Iranian-launched drones. And stock up, for today and, who knows, for tomorrow. This is why the Gulf Arab capitals have welcomed teams of Ukrainian experts and have requested defence systems from some European countries, including Italia.

Then there is the Hormuz knot. Among the more than twenty countries that have written that they are "ready to contribute to the appropriate efforts" to secure navigation in the Strait are many European states, as well as the Arab Emirates and Bahrain.

Any maritime initiative will, however, have to follow the ceasefire - at the moment still a mirage - as well as the approval of a UN resolution on which Manama (non-permanent member of the Security Council for 2026-27) is now working. It is precisely maritime security that is at the heart of the talks that the EU and the GCC started in 2024, culminating in the first summit that year in Brussels, along with infrastructure security, cybersecurity and counter-terrorism.

On the economic level, the path of cooperation had already been mapped out. Last December, the European Union started negotiations on strategic partnership agreements with Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (soon also with Saudi Arabia), focusing on energy, infrastructure, digitalisation, AI and technology. And for the creation of a free trade area with the UAE.

The most ambitious goal, however, is the free trade zone between the European Union and the Gulf Cooperation Council: a project that has been at a standstill for decades, not least because of disagreements in the mutual 'blocs'. Although they have very different levels of integration, structures and mechanisms, the EU and GCC have similar difficulties in deciding internally, in the case of the Gulf, mistrust and rivalry. The latest example is the geopolitical disagreement between Saudi Arabia and the Arab Emirates (especially in Yemen, Sudan and Somalia), only frozen by the outbreak of war.

In the pivotal year for Europe-Gulf cooperation, the conflict is now a test case for this partnership in the making, especially at the multilateral level. Until now, looking at the monarchies in the area, Brussels and European capitals had thought of defence in relation to investments and joint ventures. The Gulf countries under attack now demand, also from us, concrete choices and commitments in the security and defence sector, in the wake of the emergency. The road to cooperation is marked out, but now it is a bit more uphill.

(*) ISPI Senior Research Associate, Aseri Lecturer