Cop29: it's already a fight on the agenda Goal 1 trillion for poor countries
The Baku summit looks like a failure waiting to happen, amid defections, economic setbacks and the announced US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement. At the centre of the clash is the renunciation of oil, gas and coal, while global temperatures are rising and the damage is becoming more and more evident. A new agreement on aid to developing countries is sought. Green light for UN standards on CO2 exchange
4' min read
4' min read
The astral conjuncture on Cop29 in Baku becomes more adverse every day. In addition to the defections of political leaders (von der Leyen, Macron Scholz), there is the announcement of the US exit (again) from the Paris Agreement, which takes the weight away from the American negotiator, John Podesta.
Trump effect
.During the first Trump term, investment in renewables did not stop in the US and it is likely that it will not do so in the next four years either. A heavy setback would come with the withdrawal of subsidies provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, a landmark measure of the Biden administration, which Donald Trump wants to cancel. But business knows how to find its way, if there is profitability, and Republican congressmen in the districts that receive that money are already ready to go to the wall.
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For the climate summits, the setbacks are significant. Europe loses a strong negotiating edge with China and the fossil fuel producers. Moreover, its Green Deal is under scrutiny at home, under pressure from conservative parties. Beijing, first in the world in terms of greenhouse gases, will be able to pass itself off as the power most committed to the energy transition, in which it invests the most. It will argue that it cannot be asked to give up coal and at the same time cut subsidies to the green industry, as Washington and Brussels do, for example with duties on the electric car.
Uphill Shop
.In Baku, even the setting of the negotiation agenda is nerve-racking. The European Union and the small island countries are calling for a follow-up to the 2023 agreement, which enshrined the somewhat vague commitment to 'move away' from the use of oil and gas, as well as coal. The petro-states, on the other hand, want to limit discussions to the topic of climate finance. Azerbaijan itself, the host of Cop29, is a major oil and gas producer.
After the opening ceremony on 11 November, the parade of heads of state and government begins. One of the main objectives of the negotiations, which should close on 22 November, is to find a new agreement on aid (up to a thousand billion dollars a year, from the current one hundred) to poor countries, the most fragile in terms of infrastructure and resilience, and therefore the most exposed to climate change, to which they contribute the least. China, India (another big polluter) and Brazil will compete to be its spokesmen, despite the fact that they are bearers of interests that often conflict.
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