Social housing, record number of empty homes in Lombardy. Housing plan concentrated in the North

The picture is bleak and recounts a social pressure that continues to rise. According to the Federcasa-Nomisma Observatory, in 2024 13.5 million people will be at risk of poverty or social exclusion, equal to 23.1% of the population. A figure that has worsened slightly over the past year and that photographs a large, now structural, group. Absolute poverty concerns 5.7 million individuals and about 2.2 million families, numbers that have more than doubled in the last fifteen years. Within this picture lies a profound demographic transformation. Families are growing in number, reaching 26.4 million, but shrinking: the average size drops to 2.21 members.

Single people, who now account for 37% of households, are the driving force, while couples with children stop at 29%. Housing is the first front in this context. Among those living in rented accommodation, the incidence of poverty rises to 22.1%, against just 4.7% among owners. And among the most fragile families, the burden of rent exceeds 35% of monthly expenditure. The picture is completed by a strong polarisation of incomes: the richest 20% hold 70% of the national wealth, while more than a third of taxpayers, 36.2%, declare an annual income of less than €12,500, Nomisma reports. And again: rents are set to rise by 15% between 2021 and 2025, while purchasing power continues to erode. In large cities, the incidence of rent on disposable income is as high as 39%.

However, Erp houses also suffer from a second disease: squatting. A phenomenon that affects 22,700 properties, 2.8 per cent of the total stock, with 10.8 per cent of evictions out of the total. Then there is the growing delinquency chapter: today the consolidated figure stands at 3.2 billion euro, about 4,200 euro per dwelling. On the chapter of funds, then, 35.2 per cent comes from the Pnrr, 'a total of almost 2 billion for energy requalification put out to tender in little more than a year,' Buttieri explained. And after the Pnrr, a question mark remains. Extraordinary resources have supported interventions and redevelopments, but nobody is betting on the future. Federcasa recalls the need to give continuity to investments, to prevent the momentum from running out. What is certain for the moment is that entities are suffering. As in Naples, where 45,000 applications have arrived from those entitled to them, "which, if spread over a national sample, makes 1 million requests that we cannot process," vented Leonardo Impegno, president of Acer Campania. Or as in Rome where "rents are 100 euro per property against 1300 euro for maintenance and a 50% delinquency rate," explains Ater president Orazio Campo.

The knot of heritage renewal, pending the Housing Plan, remains open. In 2024, interventions will stop at 26,600 renovated dwellings and about 96,000 units involved in energy efficiency upgrades, equal to 12% of the stock. Numbers that indicate an activity in progress, but still insufficient compared to the extent of the need. It is no better on the new buildings front. By 2024, 2,080 dwellings had been completed, compared to 3,100 planned and 3,700 building sites: a supply chain that is moving, but with long lead times and numbers still limited compared to needs. Added to this is the chapter on divestments: during the year, some 2,400 dwellings were sold, representing an average of 25 units per company.

Finally, weighing on the coffers of the housing corporations is taxation. Taxes absorb a significant share of the managing bodies' resources, squeezing investment capacity. Leading the way is Imu, which accounts for about 26% of the total tax burden, with a particularly strong incidence on Erp housing. Added to this are Ires (32%) and Irap (8%), as well as other items that complete the picture. A level of levy that directly affects budgets and reduces margins for maintenance and renewal of assets.