familyandtrends

Creating value, capturing value and searching with artificial intelligence

On 25 July, OpenAi announced SearchGPT: 'a prototype with new search capabilities designed to combine the power of our artificial intelligence models

4' min read

4' min read

On 25 July, OpenAi announced SearchGPT: 'a prototype with new search capabilities designed to combine the power of our artificial intelligence models with information from the web to provide quick and timely answers with clear and relevant sources'. familyandtrends, short for Family Capitalism and Strategic Trends, cannot therefore avoid reasoning about AI, for the second time after the recent article. As much as artificial intelligence is something extremely innovative, it does not escape the rules of management theory and with these we will try to analyse it.

Sam Altman has done for artificial intelligence what Frances Getery did for the diamond in 1947 when she invented 'the diamond is forever', raising the number of diamond-accompanied marriage requests from 10% to 80%. Until then, the diamond was a stone used mostly for niche industrial applications, but as it became necessary to ask for the hand of the beloved, it saw the customer's willingness to pay increase dramatically. Management theory defines value creation as the difference between the customer's willingness to pay and the price actually paid, the former having to be greater than or equal to the latter otherwise the purchase does not happen. De Beers, as a monopolist, had an interest in increasing the willingness to pay for diamonds in general, it would then be the various Tiffany, Cartier etc who would differentiate the offer with different rings, for De Beers it only mattered that his stones were used on those rings.

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Altman, CEO of OpenAI, recently said: 'Companies should bet on the fact that the next model (of Chat GPT) will be better and they will benefit. Companies need to find ways to use AI as a technology rather than building an AI-based business. It is about leveraging AI to create a defensible business in the long run'. In essence: OpenAI will make better and better diamonds and companies down the value chain will compete on who makes the link with the most willingness to pay.

In management theory, to be successful, one must not only create value, i.e. willingness to pay above/equal to the price, but also capture value, i.e. be able to keep part of the price paid by the customer. Capturing value requires strategic intelligence at least as much as creating it. Intel and Microsoft have captured a large part of the price of PCs, Apple and Google capture about 30% of the price of apps on their stores, footballers about 85% of the price fans and spectators pay to see a game. How will OpenAi capture the value created? To date, it seems in three ways.

First: the agreement with Microsoft. For an investment of around 13 billion dollars, capital plus access to computing capacity, it granted Microsoft 49% of the profits and the possibility of incorporating artificial intelligence into its office automation products. In essence, money and shovels to dig mines in exchange for the first diamonds. This allowed Microsoft to be the first to make engagement rings, as seen using word or powerpoint (although the real results are expected on excel...).

Second: B2C subscriptions and B2B API access. Consumers with 20€ per month can access the premium version, the one that for instance provided the data you read about in this article. Businesses paying by the consumption of computing capacity can use ChatGPT "by finding ways, as Altamn says, to use AI as a technology rather than building an AI-based business". Currently, there are 180.5 million end users and about 2 million API (Application Programming Interface) users.

Third: SearchGPT. "Provide quick and timely answers with clear and relevant sources". Consumers will search for free and OpenAI will earn from the advertising and traffic it carries: one can 'google' without using Google. This is a direct attack on the search leader, which in this segment makes 160/180 billion and earns 40/60 billion, and has already responded with Gemini and Search, Google products that incorporate AI (we only have to do a few searches from our phones in the next few weeks to realise this).

Which of the three ways, according to management theory, is the most promising?

The first, sell the diamond to others who make rings, requires you to be somewhat of a monopolist: in AI it is, in Altman's words, 'betting on the fact that the next model (of Chat GPT) will be better' and will also be better than competing models.

The second, sell diamonds directly, allows you to grow quickly: in the words of Brad Lightcap, COO of OpenAI and partner at Altman since YCombinator, "It is difficult for large enterprises to adapt quickly. Our goal is to help them integrate AI effectively while managing their size and complexity'. This way of capturing value implies serving many customers in a differentiated way and with specific skills in 'ring expertise'. How many are familiar with Forevermark, the initiative with which De Beers has been selling rings directly to the end customer since 2017?

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The third, selling engagement rings in competition with Tiffany, Cartier, etc, requires to capture the value created by the AI, i.e. the diamond, to launch, promote and distribute products such as the Tiffany Setting, the Cartier Solitaire, etc.

Are three ways to capture value too many? "Strategy means deciding what not to do" would say Michael Porter, "start-ups need to test with MVP (Minimum Viable Product) and find their way through experiments and failures to learn from" would say Eric Ries. Eric has been a brilliant contract professor, but Michael belongs to that circle of career professors who, like old grandmothers, are always right.

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