Banks

Credit institutions in the front row at Piazza Affari after the Eba stress test

For Italian banks, better results than their Spanish, French and German competitors. Eyes on quarterly reports and risk. British banks also rally after Supreme Court ruling on car financing

by Martina Soligo and Giuliana Licini

3' min read

3' min read

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor)Banking sector in the spotlight in Piazza Affari. Bank stocks are the best performers on the Ftse Mib, with Banca Pop Sondr leading the way, followed by Mediobanca and Unicredit. On Friday, the European Banking Authority (EBA) published the results of the 2025 stress test, a recurring exercise designed to assess the resilience of financial institutions. As Equita's analysts point out, "the results highlight the soundness of Italian banks, which in the adverse scenario recorded an average decline in the cumulative Cet1 ratio of 176 basis points in 2027, a marked improvement on the average decline of -399 basis points observed in the 2023 stress test".

 In general, Italian banks 'outperformed their main European peers. On average, German banks fell by 502 basis points, French banks by 582 basis points, and Spanish banks by 186 basis points'. According to the Sim's experts, the test results 'confirm the solidity of the Italian banking sector in a context of persistent global uncertainties'. In particular, Equita highlights "how no bank fell below the minimum regulatory thresholds. On the contrary, the buffers against individual Srep requirements remain ample, thanks to the high starting Cet1 levels".

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The results were achieved despite the fact that "the macroeconomic assumptions underlying the adverse scenario are relatively stricter for Italy than for other countries. In particular, the aggregate change in GDP assumed for Italy in the adverse scenario over the period 2024-2027 is -7.4%, compared to an EU average of -6.3%".

Among the Italian banks in the Eba sample, Intesa Sanpaolo and Banca Pop Er posted the strongest results, with an impact in the adverse scenario to 2027 of 62 and -89 basis points respectively, the best among major European banks. Good results also for Banca Mps with -257 points and Banco Bpm with -258. Currently, listed Italian banks are characterised by an average Cet1 of more than 15%, higher than the roughly 13% of leading French, 13.5% Spanish and 14.5% German banks.

Meanwhile, the quarterly results season also continues for financial institutions. If Intesa, Banca Mediolanum , Mediobanca and UniCredit have brilliantly passed the test of the accounts, with the institute of Piazza Gae Aulenti exceeding 100 billion in capitalisation, this week will be the turn of Banco Bpm, Popolare di Sondrio and Bper (tomorrow) and Mps (Thursday). All this while several dossiers on the risk front remain open on the table: if UniCredit has withdrawn its takeover bid on Banco Bpm, Mps's operation on Mediobanca continues, which in turn is still grappling with a takeover bid on Banca Generali that also involves parent company Generali . The latter will hold its board meeting on 6 August and will decide how to proceed in its talks with Mediobanca to define the distribution agreements already signed with Banca Generali.

Good for UK banks after car finance ruling

It was also a brilliant day for British banks, which benefited from the favourable Supreme Court ruling on car finance litigation in London, even though the risk of billions of pounds worth of compensation remains. Lloyds Banking Group's shares were particularly strong, and Close Brothers, a specialist company, was up, while Barclays, which has less of a presence in the car finance market, made more modest gains.

The UK Supreme Court on Friday overturned a Court of Appeal ruling from last October that severely penalised the industry by ruling that commission payments made by buyers to car dealers were illegal. Instead, the Supreme Court ruled that dealers acting as credit intermediaries do not owe fiduciary duties to their customers, and consequently dismissed all charges brought specifically against Close Brothers and South African FirstRand Bank. In essence, the Supreme Court sided with the financial companies challenging the decision of the Court of Appeal.

On Sunday, on the other hand, the Financial Conduct Authority (Fca), the UK's financial markets regulator, announced that it will launch a public consultation on a compensation scheme for motorists who believe they have been overcharged. According to its estimates, the total bill could reach between £9 billion and £18 billion. However, the amount remains well below analysts' initial projections of over £30 billion, with peaks of up to £40 billion. The RBC analysts now estimate the total cost at £11.5bn, which would still leave several banks with insufficient provisions and potentially force them to strengthen their reserves, but to a lesser extent than the market expected.

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