Crisis weighs on summer: -30% for bookings

The year startedat a loss for organised tourism. Travel bookings made through agencies and tour operators between January and April fell on average by 30% compared to last year. This is what was monitored by Assoviaggi-Associazione italiana agenzie di viaggi e turismo (Italian Association of Travel and Tourism Agencies), with the Centre for Tourism Studies in Florence.

The drop is due to different, but concatenated reasons. "In the first phase, just after the US attack on Iran, some destinations that had previously been very popular fell out of favour," explains Gianni Rebecchi, president of Assoviaggi. "Not only those directly affected by the war or the air blockade: areas such as Greece, Egypt and Turkey, which were very popular because they had an excellent price/supply ratio, suffered an unfair slowdown in demand.

Next, with the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, came the fuel problem. The fear of cancellations due to a lack of jet fuel - despite the fact that the European Commission itself has declared that it does not foresee any particularly serious problems with the supply of paraffin in the short term - has led travellers to put summer bookings to whatever destination on hold. Thus running the risk of activating a vicious mechanism: 'Europe is only supplied with a small amount from the Middle East, so cancellations are more likely to come due to a lack of travellers than a shortage of aviation fuel,' Rebecchi continues. 'If companies do not sell enough seats on a particular route, it is easy for them to cancel flights, as has often happened in the past'.

Demand for travel, however, is not completely static: bookings are there, but closer to the departure date. Unlike trips decided well in advance, which have slowed down considerably, last-minute trips show smaller declines. "For undated bookings, i.e. made in the 15 days prior to departure, the drop is around 10-12 per cent," says Pier Ezhaya, president of Astoi Confindustria Viaggi. "This means that consumers are not giving up on their holidays, but are waiting to better understand the evolution of the geopolitical and energy scenario.

On the destination front, the favoured destinations are those closest and most familiar, such as mainland Spain, the Balearic Islands and the Canary Islands. "At the same time, however, several long-haul destinations continue to register interest, such as Kenya and Zanzibar, Japan, China, the Caribbean and South America, albeit with more cautious dynamics compared to initial expectations," Ezhaya continues, pointing out how many operators have introduced "more flexible tools, from date change to destination change".