Real Time Turnover Index

CsC, business turnover slows in February. Entrepreneurs expect production to stagnate

The drop was 0.2 %, which follows January's -0.5 %. Construction and partly industry suffered

by Nicoletta Picchio

29 March 2024

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Il primo trimestre del 2024 è in moderato calo per il totale dell’economia

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Key points

Building
Quick survey on trends in large industrial enterprises

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A snapshot of the Italian economy and industry trends, by sectors and areas. In February, the Rtt Index shows a moderate decline in business turnover at constant prices of -0.2%, a figure that follows the -0.5% in January. The Rtt therefore confirms that the first quarter of 2024 is a moderate decline for the economy as a whole.

Constructions

Going into the details of the sectors, it was the construction that suffered, with a -3.5% drop in February, after a very marked one in January, a trend linked to the expiry of incentives. Services had a further increase in February, +1.0%, after January's +0.7%, a trend that supports the Rtt trend. Industry had a decrease in February, -0.3%, after January's very good figure.

This is what emerges from the Real Time Turnover Index, compiled by the Centro studi Confindustria and TeamSystem by processing the electronic invoice data of around 180 thousand companies.

Quick Survey on the Performance of Large Industrial Enterprises

The Confederation of Italian Industry's Study Centre has also released the Rapid Survey on the Performance of Large Industrial Enterprises. In the expectations of entrepreneurs, the dynamics of production is stationary: 47% of the sample of associated industrial enterprises believe that production will remain stable in March. In the remaining part of the sample, 41.3% expect an improvement and 11.2% a contraction. A further positive sign, says the survey, is that no companies in the sample reported a significant reduction in production.

Looking at the quarterly dynamics, companies have become more optimistic: in the first quarter of 2024, compared to the last quarter of 2023, the share of companies anticipating a contraction in production fell by 22.7 points, while the share of companies seeing an improvement rose by 11.3.

The dynamics of demand and orders will continue to be the main driving factor of production. But the balance declined significantly (from 10.8% in February to 5.5% in March). Expectations on production costs improved: the balance between the share of companies reporting a reduction and those reporting an increase went to -0.6% from -8.5% in February. The figure for labour availability remained negative, -1.7%, not much different from January and February. The balance remains far from -7.2% in March 2023.

On the other hand, the balance between the share of companies that reported an improvement in financial conditions and that of those that reported a worsening was more favourable, although it remained in negative territory, -0.1 per cent. The balances on the availability of materials, -1.6 per cent, and on the availability of equipment, -1.4 per cent, were also negative. The latter in March reached its lowest peak since the beginning of Confindustria's survey of large industrial enterprises.

Returning to the Rtt, the index also highlights the differences by macro-area and company size: moderate decreases for the North-West (-0.4% in February) and the North-East (-0.1%), the strongest drop is in the Centre, (-2.0%), while in the South there is a moderate increase (+0.5%). In February, the Rtt indicates a strong increase for small enterprises, +7.2%; the opposite is true for medium-sized enterprises, -0.8%, and especially for large ones, -4.9%.