America

Cuba and the oil embargo, how the island is preparing for the worst

In Havana, silence has become an economic indicator. The testimony of an Italian entrepreneur who is on the spot

by Biagio Simonetta

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

In Havana, silence has become an economic indicator. And the images coming from the bus stops, where vehicles hardly pass any more, are the most eloquent sign of how the oil embargo pushed by Donald Trump is shutting down the island.

Those who have a car with a still-full tank are centring their trips. Petrol stations no longer deliver. Others are already on foot. The fuel crisis is rewriting the daily routine and, at the same time, the island's tourist narrative, especially that of the beaches and resorts that were supposed to bring in hard currency, while the country struggles to keep the lights on.

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Since last Friday, says Matteo Saccani, an Italian coffee entrepreneur who is in Havana at the moment, an emergency plan to restrict fuel and energy has come into force. 'They have closed all the schools, up to the university, and are doing distance learning. Many public offices work three days a week. Companies have been asked to amalgamate production, reducing their days of operation'. On the ground, he adds, the most visible consequence is transport: 'They have slowed down, cancelled almost all public transport in the country, and for the time being they have suspended the distribution of diesel and petrol in petrol stations.

Immagini dall’Avana

The heart of the crisis, in these hours, has reached the airlines: the Cuban government has warned airlines that jet fuel will not be available for international flights in a window running from 10 February to 11 March. It is a technical step that translates into an immediate effect on the tourist season: Air Canada, WestJet and Air Transat have suspended flights, and the carriers are organising repatriations and operational solutions such as boarding with more fuel or technical stopovers in the Caribbean, including the Dominican Republic. A situation that Saccani confirms: 'Yes, we understand that the airlines have scheduled a stopover in countries in the area, mainly in Santo Domingo, to refuel. I have a plane in the next few hours to return to Italia: the company has brought my flight forward a bit because they need time for the technical stopover, but for now the flight is confirmed'.

This is a detail that explains the phase well: the island, for the time being, remains connected, but at the cost of a longer ride and a logistical vulnerability that is seen and paid for.

Tourism, which was supposed to be the lung of foreign currency, is reacting by reducing capacity. The Spanish chain Meliá has closed three facilities to save resources. And other Italian sources on the spot, who however prefer to remain anonymous, confirm that for days now hotels have been 'concentrating' guests to save energy, that many structures remain active thanks to generators (but it is clearly a short-term solution), and that the presence of tourists is very low.

From Matteo Saccani's account, the situation in Cuba seems to be moving in two directions: daily life is getting worse, especially when it comes to mobility, while the food chain, for now, is holding up. 'Top priority has been given to the logistics of basic necessities... right now the situation has not changed compared to a couple of weeks ago,' he says. "In Havana and Santiago the restaurants are open, most have electric generators, and the shops have the same availability they had in the past months. But it is all very precarious, suspended. A condition that Cuba and Cubans know well, which has become routine at times.

However, concern is growing. "The fear now,' Matteo Saccani tells us, 'is a further tightening of the embargo... the situation today is definitely that of a state of emergency. And I must say that it reminds me a lot of the Covid period. However, the soul of the Cubans is still what we know. They are ready to resist. I have not found anyone in these days who has told me that it is absolutely necessary to reach an agreement with the United States or to do who knows what. They are all ready to resist the asphyxiation announced by Trump'.

Complicating the picture is clearly the knot of regional supplies. The flow from Mexico has also stopped: President Claudia Sheinbaum confirmed that oil shipments to Cuba are 'currently suspended', in a context in which Mexico City is seeking forms of aid that avoid retaliation from the United States.

And while the island looks for alternatives, political signals are coming from Beijing: China has said it is ready to help Cuba 'within its capabilities' after the jet fuel crisis. It remains to be seen what these capabilities are.

The quickest consequence is the short circuit between image and reality.

A few airline cancellations (such as that of AirCanada), the closure of some hotels, residents having to cope with a public transport stoppage, the state deciding what stays on and what is switched off, it looks like a compression that resembles a dress rehearsal.

In between, there is the normality of a country that is well acquainted with emergencies: generators, cut schedules, remote teaching, technical layovers. A city that continues to function, but with measured consumption, and with the feeling that the next announcement - another squeeze, another interruption - could come at any moment.

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