Cucinelli rises on the Milan Stock Exchange on a weak day for the European luxury sector

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - Luxury shares under pressure on European stock markets, but Brunello Cucinelli stands out by bucking the trend. Moncler is also performing well; after an upward start following the previous day’s performance, the shares are now holding their ground. The sector, however, is struggling, with Salvatore Ferragamo is in the red, as are the major French players LVMH, Hermès and Kering, as well as the Swiss firm Richemont.

Whilst Moncler continues to be supported by Bernstein’s positive recommendation, Cucinelli is benefiting from the reassurances given yesterday by its founder, who, on the sidelines of a conference organised by Borsa Italiana, reiterated his forecast of 10–11 per cent growth in 2026. Furthermore, today Equita’s analysts reiterated their ‘buy’ recommendation on the Umbrian fashion house’s shares, whilst revising the target price from 115 to 110 euros. The reduction was not driven by a change in forecasts for the company’s business, but by the expected impact of exchange rates and interest rates, as revised by the world’s major central banks. ‘We confirm our “buy” rating on the share, which is trading at a 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio of around 31 times – a level well below the historical average of 42 times – with a more pronounced derating compared to the rest of the sector (whose P/E ratio has fallen from 23.8 to 20 times), despite a much more visible growth profile than its peers, thanks to the brand’s distinctive positioning in high-end luxury ready-to-wear,” the analysts explained.

Ahead of the third-quarter results, which the company is due to release on 15 October, Equita met with the management of the Umbrian firm, who confirmed ‘the brand’s strong momentum’. As such, the experts estimate that Cucinelli will again post robust growth at constant exchange rates in the third quarter, in line with that of the second quarter. “We estimate turnover at 371 million, up 12.3 per cent year-on-year, in line with the 12.5 per cent growth in the second quarter.” At current exchange rates, the change is expected to be in the region of 10.8 per cent, with the currency effect remaining negative due to hedging. Equita points out that “the estimate is above the consensus at constant exchange rates, but in line with the consensus at current exchange rates, as the consensus does not factor in the impact of hedging, which offsets the benefit from spot rates”. In any case, according to the experts, the forecast of growth of around 10–11 per cent at constant exchange rates for the whole of 2026 is achievable, as the founder also indicated yesterday, and indeed it cannot be ruled out that this target may be revised upwards.

Meanwhile, Equita has already raised its revenue growth forecast for 2026 from +11.2 per cent to +11.9 per cent (consensus: +11.6 per cent). “We are, however, revising down revenue at current exchange rates by 1 per cent and, as a result, also EBIT and net profit, to reflect the negative impact of currency hedging,” they explained.

Equita, too, today advised caution on Ferragamo (“reduce”), whilst also lowering the target price from 8.2 to 7.2 euros, to reflect the forecast of a slowdown in sales in the third quarter, both in the direct-to-consumer channel and in wholesale, due to sector conditions and a more challenging year-on-year comparison. “We are cutting our EBIT estimates for 2026 and 2027 by 10 per cent (to 49 million) and 13 per cent respectively, and the target price by 12 per cent,” the analysts stated in today’s morning note, noting that the Florence-based company will publish its turnover figures for the July–September period on 20 October.