Cultured meat, EU market with a potential of 85 billion

The market for cultured meat in Europe could be worth EUR 15 to 85 billion by 2050 - between domestic consumption and exports - and generate 25,000 to 90,000 jobs. That is if the EU chooses to believe and invest in its potential, to take a leading role in the sector as of now. This is the finding of an analysis by the consulting firm Systemiq supported by the Good Food Institute Europe - which Il Sole 24 Ore of Monday is able to anticipate. The report outlines three scenarios with as many degrees of ambition - from minimum to maximum - to estimate the potential of cultured meat, produced from animal cells grown through cellular agriculture.

In the 'modest ambition' scenario, the product remains a niche ingredient, price parity (below EUR 10 per kg, today it is around EUR 85 per kg) and performance are reached in 2045, and slow regulatory progression holds back its scalability. In this scenario, cultured meat represents 0.2% of meat consumption by 2050. In the 'medium ambition' scenario, cultured meat reaches price parity in 2040, regulatory approvals occur within the next five years and adoption reaches 3% by 2050. In the most ambitious scenario - which would create a market of €15 to €85 billion - cultured meat reaches price parity in 2035, approvals gain momentum, taking advantage of existing regulatory frameworks (such as Singapore), and it reaches 9% of the market.

To realise the latter scenario, five billion euro per year would be needed, 500 million of which would come from public funding. Globally, the sector would need EUR 55 billion per year between 2024 and 2050, but could grow to EUR 170-510 billion by 2050.

"Five billion is a significant amount for an early stage industry, but not unprecedented when compared to investments in other emerging sectors or technologies to reduce emissions," explains Systemiq partner Christine Delivanis. "The EU recently approved seven billion euro grants for green transport infrastructure: similar levels of capital are already being mobilised for eco-friendly innovations." Continues Delivanis: 'Investments in food systems have been shown to offer higher impact returns than other sectors, making upfront costs a long-term opportunity for investors.

Today there are about 180 companies in the sector worldwide and more than 50 in Europe. The numbers are still small: $225.9 million was invested globally in 2023, for a total (since 2013) of $3.1 billion. This is a fraction of the investment in other technologies, yet the sector has the potential to reduce the food system's emissions by up to 17% and the amount of land needed for agricultural use by between 22% and 33%. Cutting costs is not a mission impossible, considering that solar panels cost 97% less today than they did in 1989.