Def, the government's four scenarios for the Italian economy

In the absence of an agreement on US duties, the worsening impact on Italian GDP would be a further decimal point less in 2025 and -0.2 percentage points in 2026, thus stopping at +0.5% and +0.6% from the Dfp trend estimates of +0.6% and +0.8%, respectively. For the coming years, however, the greatest risk would come from tensions in the financial markets with a possible impact of -0.3 percentage points next year and -0.5 points in 2027. This is what emerges from the Documento di economia e finanza, which draws up four simulations of the impact on GDP of the trend scenario under four different scenarios in which less favourable assumptions are made about the profile of the following variables: world trade, exchange rates, energy commodity prices and financial market conditions

According to the document, an initial scenario is characterised by a weaker trend in world trade weighted towards Italy due to a further exacerbation of tensions in trade relations between the various areas. These would manifest themselves through the adoption of economic counter-measures by European institutions, not only in the form of duties, which could, moreover, trigger an escalation of interventions. In this scenario, marked by a slowdown in global demand, the GDP growth rate would be 0.1 percentage points lower in 2025 and 0.2 points lower in 2026 than in the macroeconomic reference scenario. The subsequent recovery in global demand, which would bring it almost back to the baseline scenario by the end of 2027, would cause GDP growth to exceed that of the baseline scenario, with a further acceleration in 2028.

A second scenario characterised by exchange rate developments, with the euro appreciating more against other currencies than in the reference scenario, would result in a lower output growth rate of 0.1 percentage points from 2026 onwards.

The third scenario assumes a less favourable trend for energy commodity prices. Both oil and gas prices would be higher than in the reference scenario by USD 10 and EUR 10, respectively, from Q3 2025 to 2026. Oil prices would therefore average USD 77.5 in 2025 and USD 78.8 in 2026, while gas prices would average EUR 50.6 in 2025 and EUR 46.8 in 2026. This would result in a lower GDP growth rate, compared to the reference scenario, of -0.2 percentage points in 2026 and -0.1 points in 2027. The subsequent, conceivable return of energy prices to the levels of the reference scenario would tend to raise the GDP growth rate again.

Finally, in the fourth scenario, the assumption of less favourable financial conditions of the economy was adopted. With a level of the ten-year BTP yield rate 100 basis points higher than the reference scenario, until the end of the simulation period starting in the third quarter of 2025. The scenario of less favourable conditions for government debt financing, as a result of the propagation to the government bond segment of stress factors in other parts of the financial system, would also manifest itself in higher levels of the BTP-Bund spread, with negative repercussions on bank credit conditions for households and businesses. In this scenario, the pace of Italy's GDP growth would be attenuated, relative to the trend macroeconomic scenario, by 0.3 percentage points in 2026, and then rise to 0.5 points and above as from 2027.