Defence, how much Italy would have to pay to comply with NATO

With Donald Trump's victory in the presidential elections, the international projection of the United States is destined to change quickly, profoundly and in such a tangible and evident way that it will force Europe to reflect concretely, and in real time, on its role and its future. The area of defence is among those that will be most affected, at least potentially, by this substantial change of course.

From Obama onwards, all White House tenants have felt that the real challenge is with China. Trump is fully in this vein. And since that is the priority, Europe has little to expect from the tycoon. The recipe for new transatlantic relations is already written: compliance with Trump's repeated request to participate in defence and NATO spending (with a minimum limit of 2% of GDP) will become an insurmountable line for the USA. The goal of achieving defence spending of 2% of GDP by 2028, as per Nato commitments, is still a long way off. Complicating the picture is the fact that today the 2% bar is considered a minimum requirement, not just a target.

Where do we start from? "Very wrong figures have come out on the increase in the Defence budget," stressed Defence Minister Guido Crosetto, speaking at a hearing before the Senate Foreign Affairs and Defence Committee on the Defence multi-year planning document for the three-year period 2024 - 2026 . "We," he explained, "go from 1.54% this year, to 1.57% in 2025, 1.58 in 2026 and 1.61 in 2027. I remember that previous governments had made the commitment of 2 per cent - not of this colour - the commitment of 2 per cent for 2028'.

"Already in the latest NATO meetings," Crosetto added a few days ago during a speech on 'Five Minutes' on Rai Uno, "there is talk of 2.5 per cent of GDP" to be allocated to defence. "It is a problem for a country like ours that has a high public debt that we have inherited. We must aim to exclude Defence spending from the calculation of the Stability Pact, it must not compete with investments in culture, schools, social welfare, health. They must be detached because defence and security are a prerequisite for everything else to exist'.

Confirming the trend in the ratio of defence spending to gross domestic product was Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti, in light of the allocations in the budget bill. Speaking at a hearing on the manoeuvre before the Budget committees of the House and Senate, Giorgetti emphasised that 'despite the large appropriations allocated, the 2% of GDP target requested by Nato is very ambitious and not entirely compatible in terms of coverage with the current framework of European governance'.