GDP, Istat recalculation cuts 2024 growth: only +0.4 % in the first six months

In the first six months of the year, the Italian economy grew by +0.4%, not the +0.6% calculated so far. The correction issued by Istat on the revision of the quarterly economic accounts cuts the country's performance in the first six months of the year by two decimals: and above all it raises heavy uncertainties about the +1% growth confirmed by the government in the new Structural Budget Plan now before Parliament.

A statistical fact, in short, child of the revisions of the historical series: but with important real repercussions on the government's objectives, and on the basic assumptions of a multi-year public finance programme that already looks very demanding as shown by the controversy following Economy Minister Giancarlo Giorgetti's indication of the manoeuvre destined to ask for "sacrifices for all".

The new numbers are the fallout of the revision of the historical GDP series announced by Istat itself on 23 September. The recalculations have had a salutary effect on public finance, lowering the weight of debt on GDP by more than two points and thus offering international markets and observers a somewhat less alarming picture of the health of Italy's public accounts. But if the output for 2021, 2022 and 2023 is higher than calculated, the growth accrued in 2024 is reduced. An initial sign had already emerged in the first version of the ISTAT communiqué, which indicated that the trend change in GDP in the second quarter of 2024 had shrunk to +0.6% from +0.9% in the old calculations. In the quarter-on-quarter comparison with the previous quarter, an increase of +0.2% remains: but the impact on the half-year total is heavy: and it turns an annual growth target of +1%, which now seemed within reach, into a very ambitious one.