Democratic convention kicks off. Harris ahead in the polls

The long-distance duel between the contenders in the heartland, beginning in Pennsylvania, will continue in the coming days in parallel with the Democratic Convention. The first debate between Harris and Trump on 10 September will also be, not surprisingly, at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia. Trump on Monday will be in the southern part of the state, in York, while his deputy, JD Vance, will visit a manufacturing plant in Philadelphia. Harris and his deputy Tim Walz will take a bus tour of the western regions of the state, the land of industrial crises and revitalisation efforts, a route that will bring them closer to Chicago. In front of tens of thousands of delegates and guests, Walz will speak on Wednesday evening and Harris on Thursday, in closing.

The convention, in its four days, will give space to presidents and former presidents, trying to ride the enthusiasm for Harris: Biden will take the stage on Monday, with a speech on his own political legacy now left to the vice-president and attached to the Oval Office. Former First Lady, Senator and White House candidate Hillary Clinton is also expected to speak on Monday. This will be followed on Tuesday by Barack Obama and on Wednesday by Bill Clinton. There will be no shortage of tensions, with protests organised daily on hot-button issues that divide the party, starting with the war in Gaza. Chicago and the state of Illinois have one of the largest Muslim and Palestinian communities in the country. The spectre the Democrats want to exorcise is that of the 1968 Chicago Convention, which was torn apart by the Vietnam conflict.

The race to the polls, looking more carefully at the polls, remains tight, open to every outcome and hostage to every misstep. A strong boost for Harris is coming from the mobilisation of the Democratic base, a female, young and multi-ethnic electorate. In Nevada, Arizona and Georgia she leads Trump by 29 points among non-whites, compared to Biden's 17 points before he passed the baton to her. In contrast, Trump maintains a strong lead among whites without a college degree, with 66% of support in the four states considered. But both candidates still need to attract moderate and independent segments. With a hold on a popular electorate at stake, Harris accepted an invitation to meetings with the truck drivers' union, the Teamsters, whose leader, Sean O'Brien, in an unprecedented decision had spoken at the Republican Convention.