Denatality effect on universities: 400,000 fewer freshmen expected by 2041

That we have few children is well known. And also that our schools lose over 100,000 pupils a year. Less well known, however, is the burden that this phenomenon will have, as of 2028-29, on Italian universities. Without a surge in postgraduate passages, the universities scattered along the peninsula risk leaving 20 per cent of their freshmen on the ground. More or less 400 thousand enrolled. The alarm was raised in recent days by the CNR's fifth report on research and innovation in Italy.

The 300-page document (see also Il Sole 24 Ore of 4 November) devotes an entire chapter, the second, to the 'Italian university system between migration, innovation and demographic crisis'. With the help of Area studi Mediobanca, the analysis helps us understand where we are coming from, that is, from a recent past of low investment in tertiary education and few graduates, and - above all - where we are going. The outlook is not rosy. Crossing the data of those born in Italy from 1982 to 2021 with the enrolment of 19-year-olds, a picture emerges of an ongoing upward trend, which should peak in the academic year 2027-2028 when the effects of the 2008 birth boom should be felt. After that the problems will begin.

The table published next leaves little room for doubt. Between now and 2041 we will have more than 512 thousand fewer young people of university age than in 2023. A drop of 22.1% that appears more acute for 18-year-olds (-26.2%) and then tends to decline up to the age of 21 (-18.4%). If we consider that 89.6% of the Italian university population is made up of 18-21 year-olds, 5% of 22-25 year-olds, 3% of 26-35 year-olds, 1.8% of 36-5 year-olds, and a final 0.6% of the over-50s, the point of arrival is clear: "Applying the demographic projections to this weight structure," reads the CNR report, "by January 2041 there would be a drop in the university population at the terminal date of 20.6%, which is equivalent to 400,000 fewer students". With an economic loss in terms of university fees estimated at 480 million euros. Assuming the enrolment rate remains constant. Because if it were possible to realign it with the higher average rate recorded in the EU, the estimated drop in enrolments would be halved to 10% (-200,000 freshmen) and the financial hole would also be reduced.

Complicating the picture, as often happens, are a number of imbalances typical of Italian education. Both at territorial and university level. On the first point, the South would pay the heaviest bill, with some southern regions (Molise, Basilicata, Apulia and Sardinia) which, due to their poor ability to attract students from other parts of the country, would leave 30% of their freshmen on the ground, compared to 18.5% in the North and 19.5% in the Centre.

In this regard, the CNR report also tries to indicate some possible countermeasures. These range from strengthening the attraction of foreign students, especially those coming from countries close to our own (Mediterranean and Eastern Europe), to increasing collaboration with foreign universities, and to remodelling the university curriculum to meet the needs of the world of work in order to update outdated skills and develop genuine lifelong learning. Proposals that in recent years have often appeared on the political agendas of the various majorities that have come to government. But which too often have remained on paper.