Shocking birth rate: 5 million fewer workers by 2040

The effect on labour is broader: by 2040 the number of people of working age will fall by around five million. This could lead, Bankitalia recalled in its 2025 report, to a contraction of output estimated at 11 per cent, or 8 per cent in per capita terms.

The OECD even increases the dose. For the period from 2023 to 2060, estimates speak of a 34 per cent drop in the working-age population, among the largest internationally. The number of dependent elderly people for every person of working age in Italy will increase from 0.41, that is, one dependent elderly person for every 2.4 people of working age, to 0.76, that is, one dependent elderly person for every 1.3 people of working age. If we compare this with young people, the Ragioneria Generale dello Stato in its latest estimates warned that in 2080 we risk having 312 elderly people for every 100 young people.

A further indication comes from the OECD: even assuming that the annual growth of labour productivity remains at the level of the 2006-2019 period (-0.31% in Italy with GDP per capita at -0.20%), the projections show that Italy's GDP per capita will fall at an annual rate of 0.67%, the second worst in the entire reference area of the Paris-based organisation, against the average +0.6% (in any case a sharp slowdown compared to the +1% of 2006-2019). Only Greece will have a greater fall in GDP (-1.8%).

On the economic impacts of the demographic trend, the Upb has also addressed the issue in recent days, pointing out that from 2022 to 2070, on the basis of the estimates contained in the 2024 Awg report (the Working group on ageing populations and sustainability) there would be a reduction in pension expenditure on GDP (-1.9 percentage points, to 13.7%) as a result of a significant increase in the retirement age and a significant reduction in the ratio between pension and average salary (due to the contributory method of calculation), while both healthcare spending (+0.1 percentage points of GDP, to 6.4%) and spending on long-term care (+0.5 points, 2.1%) would increase. And the reason is also indicated: by 2043, Istat told us, almost 40 per cent of households will consist of just one person. In particular, it is expected that there will be 6.2 million people over 65 (+38%) and 4 million over 75 (+4%) living alone. The healthcare component and the accompanying allowances, which were paid out in 2023 to almost 2.3 million beneficiaries, together cover 4/5 of the total expenditure for long-term care, Inps recalled.

The remainder is accounted for by other welfare benefits provided at the local level. On this side, the State's General Accounting Office forecasts a continuous growth in welfare spending (pensions, health, long-care term) launching a sort of alarm: the forecasts for the next few years - pointed out Daria Perrotta, who is head of the Mef's 'technical-accounting structure' - show an increasing trend that will reach 25.1% of GDP in 2043 and then decrease also due to the exit of the baby boomers and will fall to 22.7% in 2070, a value in line with the pre-pandemic one.

It is now clear to everyone that these data show that the case of birth defects is now a real emergency. Which can only be tackled with immediate action. Starting with the recovery of the inactive, considered a priority by almost all national bodies and statistical observatories. But in the possible menu of measures to be adopted there is also, as suggested by Upb and Bankitalia, that of including the decisive contribution of (regular) immigrants. What is now certain is that without shock therapy, the demographic winter risks turning into a Siberian winter for our country.