De-natality, without intervention GDP to fall by more than 18% in 2050
The survey 'Demographic trends and banking services' promoted by Abi: less population of working age means less growth
by Andrea Carli
Key points
A more accentuated collaboration between the public and private sectors to tackle one of the most difficult challenges for the Italian economy: the ageing of the population. This is the message that comes out of the survey 'Demographic evolution and banking services' promoted by Abi. When the active population decreases and no corrective action is taken, the economy grows more slowly because the number of people working, producing income, consuming and investing is reduced.
A smaller population of working age implies a reduction in growth potential, already visible in the medium term and more marked in the long term. Estimates - underlines the banking association - indicate, in the absence of intervention, GDP levels that could be over 18% lower in 2050 and over 30% lower in 2080. In short, if no action is taken to stem the demographic winter, the engine of the country's economy, which is already running at a reduced pace in certain respects, risks coming to a halt.
According to the association, greater synergies between the public and private sectors, including in credit, can stem and contain the negative effects of the birth rate on growth. All this by concentrating interventions on four fundamental levers: young people, women, graduate employment and migration balances.
The burden on the shoulders of the young
If today 100 people of working age support 49 young and elderly people, in 2050 they would support almost 72, in 2080 about 75. The share of the elderly in the working age population would rise from 30.5 per cent to 52.8 per cent in 2050, to 54.7 per cent in 2080.
Fewer 13 million people by 2080
According to ISTAT forecasts referred to by the survey, the Italian population could decrease by more than 13 million people by 2080, from the current 59 million to about 45.8 million. At the same time, the share of the population over 67 years of age would rise to 31%. The population of working age would decrease by more than 13 million, dropping from the current 67.3% of the total to 58.2% in 2050 and 57.3% in 2080, with the dynamics more accentuated in the South.
