Diasorin beyond tariffs: bet on the US Challenge in DNA testing

Adjusted net profit, for its part, rose to EUR 236 million (+5%), while the net margin was 20% (in line with the previous year). In view of these consolidated figures, from the point of view of the division of sales by geographic area, the final balance at the end of 2024 was as follows: North America (essentially the United States) accounted for 50% and Europe for 35%; the remaining 15% was the prerogative of the Rest of the World.

Is this articulation destined to change in the medium term? The answer is positive. The Rest of the World - which includes the business related to China, which is decelerating - is expected to reduce its incidence on sales. This is mainly to the advantage of North America - basically the USA - which, on the contrary, is expected to increase its weight in overall sales by a few percentage points.

On closer inspection, the push on the American front - which is indeed a company focus - will be supported by both Immunodiagnostics and Molecular Diagnostics.

With regard to the first area, the group is aiming, among other things, to continue to expand the range of infectious disease tests on the Liason XL technology. Here, the target customers in particular are hospitals. At the end of last year, the number of hospitals using Diasorin's technology was 400. The goal, through the average annual addition of around 100 new customers, is to reach around 600 hospitals in 2027.

With regard to DNA- or RNA-based tests, however, an important step in the expansion programme is flexibility in the proposal of test panels.

In the past, the established practice was for the technology to perform a standard number of analyses even if not specifically related to the patient's problems. As a result, the costs, for the end user himself, were high. Now, on the other hand, Diasorin proposes a flexible offer that implies lower charges and adapts the number of tests to the specific needs and demands of the potential patient.

The technology - the Liason Plex was launched in September 2024 - will gradually be upgraded. At the beginning of 2026, the panels available with this approach should allow for respiratory, blood and gastrointestinal tests. That said, in 2024 the 'multiplexing franchise' (i.e. Verigene and Liason Plex) was able to generate USD 60 million in America.

These are expected to become 75 million in 2025, rising to around 200 million in 2028 with a 10% share in global multiplexing.

All as easy as drinking a glass of water, then? The reality is more complicated. On the recent Liberation Day, the saver expresses concern that the tariffs wanted by Donald Trump could affect the company's business. The group, although aware of the problematic nature of the situation and its potential worsening, confirms that to date the issue of tariffs is negligible.

First, it is explained, the company produces all the molecular solutions in the US. Consequently, with respect to these, the problem does not arise. With regard to immunodiagnostics, on the other hand, only a minority is produced in Europe.

Against this, on the one hand the company indicates that any impacts will be dealt with - as during the Covid period - through price leverage; and on the other hand it emphasises that it is still able to handle the situation. Nevertheless, it can be further argued that, with the controversial Doge programme, the White House's aim is to cut government spending, including on healthcare.

A project that could affect biomedical companies, including Diasorin. True, says the group, which however - inviting a more articulate analysis - rejects the further doubt. In the first place, is the indication, in the USA health services as a whole are for the most part attributable to private insurance companies. Moreover: within the minority share covered by the public healthcare system - Diasorin again says - its business is a small part.

Finally: even if there were cuts to, for example, hospitals-customers, it is very likely that the latter would outsource diagnostics to commercial laboratories. Which, the company concludes, are themselves users of the group. In this sense, the company - adding that at present there is no slowdown in the approval process by the Fda - does not see a particular problem on this front.

So far, some considerations on tariffs 'made in Trump' and the US bet. What, however, are the prospects for other geographical areas, primarily Europe? The Old Continent, which remains central, albeit mature, is seen as a market where - apart from the challenge of the further spread of Liason Mdx (molecular) - the aim is to propose new speciality tests and increase the volumes of immunodiagnostics. China, on the other hand, is a different matter. The former Middle Kingdom is no longer - as is well known - a potential industry Eldorado (at least at present) for foreign companies.

The volume-based procurement (Vbd) wanted by Beijing, by effectively halving the prices of diagnostic solutions, on the one hand makes the business unprofitable; on the other hand, it strengthens local 'low-cost' competition. In such a context, the Vbp is expected to imply a negative impact on Diasorin's immunodiagnostics of around EUR 5 million in 2025. Is this a scenario in which the company - whose revenues generated locally to date have fallen below 3% of the total - aims to leave the market? The answer is no. The group recently completed the construction of a factory in Shanghai.

By allowing it to present itself as a local producer, it enables the company to participate in public auctions. In other words: Diasorin in the short term does not see China as an opportunity, but stands ready to exploit future opportunities (if profitable). But it is not just a question of geography.

There are also the different business areas. Here - apart from the fact that all three divisions are considered essential - the growth dynamic is somewhat different. Immunodiagnostics, for example, is expected to expand in line with the growth of the group in 2025. Molecular - evidently also in the wake of the efforts in the US - is for its part expected to grow revenues at a slightly higher rate.

Given such forward-looking trends, what then is the company's guidance for the current financial year? The group confirms, taking tariffs into account on the day the 2024 numbers were presented, the increase in turnover ex Covid at 8% (constant exchange rates).

The adjusted Ebitda margin, for its part, is expected to settle at 34%. In the longer term, however, the last margin indicator is expected to reach 36-37% in 2027.

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