Diasorin sparkles, Qiagen reorganisation rumours ignite speculation

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - The stock is trading on a good uptrend Diasorin, which ranks at the top of the list in Piazza Affari (FTSE MIB ). The stock is supported by rumours from Bloomberg that Dutch competitor Qiagen is considering strategic options, including a possible sale, after renewed interest from potential buyers. On these rumours the share price on Wall Street rose over 16% on the eve of the sale. In Frankfurt the share is up 3.8% to EUR 45.74. Both companies are active in related areas of in vitro diagnostics and collaborate closely, especially in molecular diagnostics, with a strategic partnership that integrates Qiagen's tests (such as QuantiFeron for tuberculosis) on DiaSorin's automated platforms (the Liaison line) to offer complete 'Sample to Insight' solutions to laboratories.

Intermonte analysts point out that Qiagen had previously attracted interest from Thermo Fisher Scientific and bioMerieux without reaching a deal; in November, the company announced thatCEO Thierry Bernard will leave office as soon as a successor is appointed, "a factor that could now make the group more attractive for a deal. Read-across contrasted for DiaSorin: on the one hand, renewed interest in Qiagen could bolster visibility at current multiples and rekindle speculative appeal in the diagnostics sector. At current 2016 prices, Qiagen trades at 15 times enterprise value/ebitda and 21 times price/earnings ratio, versus 11 and 17 times respectively for Diasorin'. On the other hand, the brokers point out that "the capital of Diasorin is not contestable today without an agreement with the three main shareholders, who collectively control 73% of the voting rights (in particular the Denegri family with 57%), and there are no indications of their possible future disengagement".

On the industrial and strategic level, Diasorin is also Qiagen's partner for the commercialisation of Quantiferon, a reference test for the diagnosis of latent tuberculosis and Lyme disease. "A possible change of control of Qiagen will therefore have to be evaluated in terms of possible impacts on the existing commercial agreements with Diasorin. Recall that Quantiferon is expected to generate approximately 500 million in sales for Qiagen in 2026 (27% of sales) and 600 million in 2028 (30% of sales). Although the economic details of the agreement have never been disclosed, for Diasorin we estimate an annual turnover of around 100 million (8% of Group revenues), with a dilutive impact on the margin due to royalties paid to Qiagen'.

For Banca Akros analysts, 'a possible sale of Qiagen would not pose particular risks to the continuation of the partnership between Qiagen and DiaSorin'. Moreover, "considering the importance of QuantiFeron technology for Qiagen's revenues (sales account for more than 20% of Qiagen's turnover), we believe that a potential buyer would have a strong interest in maintaining the partnership with DiaSorin. However, should there be no interest in continuing with the QuantiFeron technology, the business could either be acquired by DiaSorin or, as management has indicated in the past, DiaSorin could develop the technology internally, as other market entrants have done'. In light of this, the business house reaffirms its Accumulate recommendation, pending the results of the 2025 financial year, due on 20 March.

Finally, Equita believes that "any repercussions for Diasorin will depend on the nature of the potential bidder; in any case, we point out that the group is protected by robust contractual clauses and that the possible development of tests on new platforms would require a long timeframe. We believe that the news is positive for the sector as a whole, as it confirms the attractiveness of the business'.