The Strategy

Diversification and gas-electricity decoupling: EU remedies for high energy prices

The European Commission announced for Friday 6 March a special meeting of the College of Commissioners, all focused on the energy issue

from our correspondent Beda Romano

L'oleodotto Druzhba tra l'Ungheria e la Russia visibile dalla raffineria Danube del gruppo ungherese MOL a Szazhalombatta, Ungheria

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

BRUSSELS - The military intervention decided by the United States and Israel against Iran, as well as Tehran's retaliation, are having repercussions that go far beyond the political aspect. In Europe, the sharp rise in oil and gas prices is coming as the Twenty-Seven are attempting to diversify their sources of supply and reduce energy prices in order to boost the economy's competitiveness. The idea of decoupling the price of gas from the price of electricity is back in vogue.

The European Commission announced a special meeting of the College of Commissioners on Friday 6 March, all focused on the energy issue. "Our aim is to protect businesses and consumers," explained EU executive spokeswoman Paula Pinho. The European Commission itself wants to reassure: 'There is no immediate problem for energy security, also because we are at the end of the winter season'.

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Hit by Iranian drone attacks in recent days, a major Qatari plant has stopped producing liquefied gas for export. The direct impact for Europe is limited - in the third quarter of 2025, only 6% of the gas imported by the Union came from the Arab emirate. However, Qatar's choice caused a worldwide price spike. In Europe, gas prices rose by as much as 75%.

"The European Union has made it clear that it wants to break free from Russian oil and gas, but the events of the past three to four days have made this goal difficult," Norwegian Energy Minister Terje Aasland said in Oslo. "Given the current geopolitical situation, I think the debate will pick up again." Under these circumstances, the Europeans are unlikely to go back on their decision to stop all hydrocarbon imports from Russia from 2027.

At the same time, it is clear that the new situation is worrying, all the more so because in many countries even before the military intervention against Iran, energy prices were already undermining the competitiveness of the economy. In an article, Simone Tagliapietra, a researcher at Bruegel, suggested monitoring a possible diversion of cargo ships to Asia, as well as preparing both a possible strategy to reduce consumption and coordination in the management of national reserves.

French President Emmanuel Macron has spoken of the urgency of securing the transit of crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, as was done in other circumstances, notably during the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s. More radical choices are also being considered. At its meeting tomorrow, the College of Commissioners cannot fail to discuss the fact that European electricity prices are currently dependent on gas prices. Many have long lobbied for a decoupling.

'All options are on the table,' Ms Pinho said this week. Meanwhile, diversification has made great progress. According to Eurostat, more than 47 per cent of electricity was generated by renewables in 2024 (the share was 16 per cent in 2004). Industry analysts expect new efforts to make Europe more energy self-sufficient, although monetary tightening in response to a jump in inflation could weigh on investments.

Finally, a diatribe between Kiev and Budapest has been brewing for a few days now after a pipeline used to transfer oil from Russia to Hungary via Ukraine was damaged. Many European diplomats believe that the Ukrainian government is not fully transparent about what happened, and tend to agree with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. Moreover, the interruption of the oil flow comes at the worst possible time for a country, Hungary, without access to the sea.

The pressure on prices is likely to only add further anxiety (in the meantime, Budapest is blocking the EUR 90 billion European loan to Kiev). To complete the picture, it is good to know that in 2025, 58% of the liquefied gas imported by the European Union came from the United States, and that European gas reserves are currently at 30% of total capacity, 9% less than at the same time last year, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.

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