Bankitalia: 'Accounts improving with spending cuts, incomes hit' Upb: 'Debt/GDP decline from 2027 is based on ambitious assumptions'

The improvement in the public accounts, in particular the primary surplus, estimated in the Dpfp, in particular, "is due to the sharp drop in the incidence on GDP of primary expenditure, both current (-0.9 percentage points) and capital (-0.7 points). The labour income of public employees would contribute 0.3 points to the reduction in the incidence of current primary expenditure; as a ratio of GDP, it would fall to 8.7% in 2028, one of the lowest values in the last quarter of a century". This is what the Bank of Italy reports in its hearing on the Document, adding that "in nominal terms, expenditure on employee income would grow by an average of 1.5% per year against an increase in the deflator of private consumption of 1.8%".

In view of the next manoeuvre, explained the head of Bankitalia's Economics and Statistics department Andrea Brandolini, "a reallocation between the various budget items can favour productivity and growth. This would happen, for example, by increasing resources in favour of investment, research and education and at the same time rationalising tax expenditure, removing the elements of the tax system that discourage the growth in size of companies, and stemming the erosion of the Irpef tax base".

Il quadro programmatico delineato nel Dpfp «sembra non includere, se non in parte, maggiori oneri per la capacità di difesa», sebbene il Documento «giudichi realistico, sulla base degli impegni presi in sede Nato, un graduale aumento della spesa nel prossimo triennio, fino a 0,5 punti di Pil in più nel 2028. In assenza di misure correttive ulteriori rispetto alla manovra, una maggiore spesa per la difesa rispetto a quella incorporata nel tendenziale condurrebbe a una dinamica della spesa netta più sostenuta rispetto a quanto programmato». «Nel caso ciò avesse luogo in un momento in cui l’Italia non fosse più in una procedura per deficit eccessivo, - ha spiegato Brandolini - per non rientrarvi immediatamente si potrebbe rendere necessario ricorrere all’attivazione della clausola di salvaguardia».

The Parliamentary Budget Office has validated the macroeconomic forecasts of the Dpfp, as announced by the president, Lilia Cavallari, during the hearing before the Budget Committees. The forecasts of the macroeconomic framework of the document, both trend and planning, were assessed as 'acceptable, although in several cases they are at the upper limit of the Upb panel's range'. The forecasts are however 'exposed to multiple risks, balanced in the short term but predominantly downward in the medium term, largely attributable to international conflicts and investment dynamics, financial market instability and climate and environmental risk'.

According to the indications provided by Cavallari, in the Dpfp's programmatic macroeconomic forecasts, the impact of the budget manoeuvre on the cumulative change in GDP 'would be a couple of tenths of a percentage point over the three-year forecast period (neutral next year and marginally expansive in 2027-2028). The Document only provides general information on the manoeuvre measures - including the recomposition of the tax levy with the reduction of the burden on labour income, incentives for companies and the refinancing of the National Health Service - which would stimulate growth through the stimulus to domestic demand'.The Dpfp's macroeconomic forecasts are based on the following three main points