Ukraine and hybrid warfare

Ukraine: Suspects in the attempted attack in Leipzig have been identified. Norway seizes a Russian ship at Ukraine’s request

Germany has evidence of Russian involvement in the events of 4 August. Putin dismisses the allegations out of hand

La presidente della Commissione europea Ursula von der Leyen e il segretario generale della Nato Mark Rutte parlano degli attacchi ibridi russi a Lipsia REUTERS

8' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

8' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Tensions between Berlin and Moscow, has been palpable for weeks, has escalated into what is now an open confrontation. Germany now has evidence that the Russians are behind the drone bomb attacks in Leipzig. Following the drone attack on Leipzig/Halle Airport, investigators have identified two suspects with links to Russia. As reported by the Süddeutsche Zeitung, NDR and WDR, these are a man of Russian origin holding a Latvian passport and a Belarusian man holding a Russian passport.

EU High Representative Kaja Kallas reacted strongly, stating: “Even today, during the discussion on Ukraine, many emphasised that we really must restrict the issuing of tourist visas (for Russian and Belarusian citizens, ed.)”. Kallas also announced that the EU is working on the most comprehensive package of new additions to the sanctions lists against Russia. “We are working on 1,600 targeted additions specifically aimed at the Russian military-industrial complex, so as to effectively disrupt supply chains,” she explained.

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The two suspects in the attempted attack

One of the two suspects, the one with Belarusian nationality, was already known to the authorities for offences committed in the Baltic states. The German authorities are said to have traced his movements, and he is believed to have entered the Schengen area using a tourist visa issued by the  Italian authorities in Minsk at the end of April. This is reported by Tageshau, citing NDR, WDR and the Süddeutsche Zeitung.

Commenting on this information, EU High Representative Kallas emphasised: ‘It is, of course, up to the German authorities to confirm or deny this report, but if it were true, it would demonstrate very clearly that visas are a tool used by those seeking to harm the European Union’. According to the latest information, provided by security sources, the Belarusian national involved is said never to have travelled through Italia. However, the same sources stress that further checks and investigations are currently underway.

The second man, on the other hand, is believed to have acted as the operation’s logistics manager and trainer. According to German media reports, he is thought to have entered Germany at the end of July via Berlin-Brandenburg Airport, before travelling to Saxony in a hire car. Two days before the failed attack, he is said to have left the country again by plane. According to initial reports, two individuals have been identified thanks to various traces of DNA found at the scene of the attack and in the areas surrounding the airport. Investigators are reported to have found biological traces on a drone, inside a canister containing explosives and on an antenna attached to a tree near the airport. Investigators also believe that more drones may have been used in the operation than was initially known. So far, three drones have been found, either intact or partially intact.

Furthermore, the government of Friedrich Merz has announced a series of retaliatory measures: the closure of the Consulate-General in Bonn from 18 September, the termination of the contract with the controversial Russian House in Berlin (regarded as a spy den), and increased pressure on the shadow fleet.

Moscow responds to the allegations and threatens a reaction

In response to the German measures, Germany’s chargé d’affaires in Moscow was summoned to the Foreign Ministry today ‘following yesterday’s anti-Russian actions and statements by the German authorities’. This was announced by the ministry itself, which also foreshadowed “a strong reaction” to Berlin’s decision, announced yesterday, to close the Russian consulate in Bonn and the Russia House in Berlin. “The Russian side categorically rejects the completely unfounded accusations levelled by Berlin regarding Russia’s involvement in the alleged incident at Leipzig Airport”, the ministry stated in a press release, in which it accused Germany of having “deliberately staged a veritable provocation, the aim of which was to exacerbate Russian-German relations”.

The spokesperson for the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had already spoken out: “We will respond to all of Germany’s anti-Russian decisions,” threatened Maria Zakharova. ‘And the response will be devastating’ in the event of ‘mad anti-Russian adventures’ in the Baltic. A warning directed not only at Berlin, but at the whole of Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

The strong reaction from the EU and NATO in support of the Germans and against Moscow’s hybrid war does indeed point to an unprecedented escalation. Later that evening came a sharp retort from Russian President Vladimir Putin, who is convinced that Berlin’s accusations against Russia are linked to the ‘internal political situation’ in Germany. ‘The Chancellor does not enjoy the confidence of the people; they have made obvious mistakes in the economic sphere,’ said Putin, adding that Germany has no evidence of a Russian hybrid war. His views were echoed by the Russian ambassador to Germany Sergey Nechayev, who described Berlin’s accusation as ‘baseless, absurd and contrary to common sense’, adding that such sanctions represent “an unprecedented escalation in Russian-German relations and will not be without consequences”.

Norway seizes a Russian ship at Ukraine’s request

Tensions are also rising in the Arctic, where the Norwegian authorities have seized the Russian cruise ship “Professor Molchanov” off the Svalbard archipelago, at the request of the Ukrainian state-owned energy company Naftogaz, as announced today by the company itself. The move aims to enforce an arbitration ruling ordering Russia to pay Naftogaz approximately $4.22 billion for the illegal seizure of assets during the annexation of Crimea in 2014. “This is another important step towards achieving justice in the face of Russia’s illegal seizure of Naftogaz’s assets in Crimea,” said Naftogaz’s acting CEO, Sergii Fedorenko, in a statement. “We will continue to seek out Russian assets worldwide until the full compensation owed to Naftogaz and the other companies in the Naftogaz Group has been paid,” he added. According to the statement, the seizure was ordered on 31 August 2026 by a Norwegian court to ensure payment of the Russian debt, including interest and costs. The vessel-tracking website VesselFinder indicates that the ‘Professor Molchanov’ is anchored in Barentsburg, a mining town. The Svalbard police confirmed the seizure to the newspaper Aftenposten. “The Svalbard Police received an order from the District Court of North Troms and Senja to seize the vessel ‘Professor Molchanov’. Today, the Svalbard Police carried out the seizure of the vessel in Barentsburg,” said Håkon Finstad.

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Proposal to transfer Russian assets from Euroclear to an EU vehicle

According to ANSA, in future Europe could move the settlement of Russian assets frozen in the EU out of the Belgian-based Euroclear and transfer them to a European vehicle. This is one of several scenarios on which the Commission is currently carrying out technical and legal assessments, which are still only at a preliminary stage. However, some Member States are pressing for the 210 billion in Russian sovereign assets frozen in the EU due to sanctions over the war to be used for Ukraine, and rumours on this issue are intensifying in Brussels. The ‘European Transfer’ or ‘Russian Transfer’, by removing assets and liabilities from Euroclear, would overcome the crucial issue of Belgium’s exposure to legal and financial risks.

Ucraina, 1.642° giorno di guerra

Photogallery12 foto

Zelenskyy speaks to Merz: ‘Agreement on drones between the two countries is imminent’

Against this backdrop, the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held a video conference today with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and stated that Ukraine is finalising the drone agreement with Germany. Zelensky said that the two had discussed the Russian drone attack on Leipzig, describing it as ‘a further Russian escalation’. ‘Friedrich briefed me on the measures taken,’ said the Ukrainian leader. ‘For my part, I assured him that Ukraine is ready to help by providing expertise, experience or support in other areas where Germany might need it. Our teams are already finalising the text of the drone agreement, which, amongst other things, will certainly provide Germany and Ukraine with additional defence capabilities. We discussed the content of the agreement and when we might be able to sign it.”

According to Reuters, the agreement will build on existing defence cooperation between the two countries and will include a multi-million programme to supply Kyiv with around 15,000 ‘Strila’ interceptor drones, designed to counter ‘Shahed’-type attack drones. Germany is also funding an order for 50,000 “Shrike” attack drones, manufactured by the Ukrainian company SkyFall; this is one of the largest drone purchases ever made by a Western government on behalf of Kyiv. In April, the German defence technology firm Quantum Systems and the Ukrainian manufacturer WIY Drones announced the creation of Quantum WIY Industries, a joint venture aimed at increasing the production of interceptor drones and related air defence technologies.

Zelensky: first airlines suspend flights to Russia

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky also stated on Wednesday evening that he had learnt that “the first airlines have begun to suspend flights to Russian airports” after Kyiv announced that Russian airspace was unsafe.

“We are receiving reports that the first airlines have begun to suspend flights to Russian airports following our announcement regarding the danger posed by drones, which objectively exists in Russian airspace,” he said in his evening address to the nation, emphasising that “this is the right and perfectly logical response to the facts as they stand, to everything that stems from the war that Putin does not want to see end.”

Reactions from Western allies

On the EU side, the president of European Commission Ursula von der Leyen is making her presence felt: “We will respond,” she declares, hinting at unprecedented measures. “Russia’s attempts to intimidate us, to undermine our unity and our resolve to support Ukraine, are futile and will fail,” echoed the Secretary-General of the Alliance, Mark Rutte. Both telephoned Merz to express their solidarity, which was also echoed in the words of Giorgia Meloni and Antonio Tajani: “At times like this,” said the Italian Prime Minister, “it is essential to stand firm, to continue working together and to maintain a credible deterrent posture in defence of our citizens’ security.”

At the end of her meeting with Rutte, the President of the European Commission told the press that ‘pressure on Russia will be stepped up’ and that she may impose further sanctions to that end. Speaking alongside Rutte, she added that ‘the EU and NATO stand united’. The incident in Leipzig “was an attack using military equipment carried out as part of a Russian operation on European soil. We will not tolerate this. This intimidation will not work.” Rutte stated that he fully agreed with von der Leyen.

For his part, the President of the European Council, Antonio Costa, stated that the threats and hybrid attacks attributed to Russia will not cause the European Union to alter its support for Ukraine. “The message to Russia is very clear: war is not the path to peace, nor is escalation. The path to peace, on the other hand, lies in a ceasefire and a genuine willingness on Russia’s part to engage in dialogue with others,” Costa said during a press conference with Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Luc Frieden.

The fact that the threat does not hang over Berlin alone was also demonstrated on Monday night: several drones triggered an alarm in Latvia and crossed into Estonian airspace, prompting NATO fighter jets to take to the skies. This is the latest in a series of incidents involving the skies over half of Europe. But Germany ‘remains a daily target of a hybrid war’, emphasised Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt in a statement alongside his Foreign Minister colleague Johann Wadephul, who had rushed back from Algiers just as “several unconventional, homemade explosive devices” were discovered in Brandenburg; these damaged a power line but caused no injuries or power cuts, as confirmed by the Potsdam police.

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