Drought, Europe on the road to water resilience

Extreme heatwaves, increasing droughts, but also volatile rainfall, with unforeseen water bombs scourging cities and destroying crops: this is the new normal associated with the climate crisis, to which we have to get used.

According to the OECD's Global Drought Outlook, the land area exposed to drought risk has doubled within a century, now accounting for 40 per cent of the land area, with a dramatic increase in recent decades. "The economic impact of drought today is six times higher than in 2000 and the costs are set to rise further, increasing by at least 35% between now and 2035," says Jo Tyndall, director of the organisation's Environment Directorate. The areas where droughts are most frequent and intense are the western United States, South America, southern Europe, southern Australia, northern Africa and Russia. The OECD estimates that a single wave of drought can cost between 0.1% and 1% of a nation's GDP, depending on how dependent its economy is on agriculture or hydropower.

Drought drives up prices, exacerbates poverty and causes mass migration. It affects many key sectors of the economy, although agriculture is the sector most affected, as it uses almost 70% of the available fresh water to irrigate fields. Crops can drop by as much as 22% in drought years. Because of these wide-ranging impacts, drought could wipe out almost 15% of the Eurozone's economic output, according to an ECB study. European banks have lent EUR 1.3 trillion to the sectors considered most at risk, namely agriculture, manufacturing, mining and construction.

As far as agriculture is concerned, a new study just published in 'Nature' reveals that global average yields of six staple crops (cassava, maize, rice, sorghum, soya and wheat) are set to decline by more than 11% in a moderate warming scenario by the end of the century, even taking into account how farmers adapt to the climate emergency. The predominantly American authors conclude that keeping global trade fluid will be an essential element in reducing the economic damage of the crisis. Unfortunately, however, there is a tendency to do the opposite: for example, India, the world's largest rice exporter, banned the release of non-white basmati rice in 2023, causing prices to soar worldwide after a destructive monsoon.

Solutions? The OECD report suggests three interconnected strategies to combat drought. The first point concerns irrigation systems, which should be converted to drip systems, because these can cut water consumption in some geographical areas by almost 76% without affecting yields. Second, the OECD recommends a reform of water pricing, adjusting it to the real value of the resource and the environmental costs of delivering it. Third, the report emphasises the urgency of always considering water as part of climate adaptation plans through nature-based strategies that include agriculture, energy and urban planning. Short-term solutions such as desalination or over-extraction of groundwater, on the other hand, can cause both economic and ecological problems. Groundwater levels are falling (62% of those monitored) and many rivers are experiencing significant reductions in flow. These changes in water availability accelerate soil degradation and negatively affect ecosystems such as forests and wetlands, exacerbating future drought risks.