Trade war

Tariffs, boomerang effect on US maize: export collapses and stocks are at highs

According to the International Grains Council, stocks are estimated to increase by 31% in the 2025-26 marketing year

2 June 2025

2' min read

Key points

Declining exports, global demand diverted elsewhere
Competition grows: Brazil and Ukraine in the lead
Global map to new records

2' min read

The trade tariffs imposed by the United States risk turning into a resounding own goal, especially for the agricultural sector. This emerges from the latest forecasts of the International Grains Council (IGC), which point to a fall in US maize exports in the face of an explosive growth in stocks, estimated to increase by 31% in the 2025-26 marketing year.

The US, according to the IGC, is on track to record its largest ever corn harvest: an impressive 397.4 million tonnes, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year. However, this production record is accompanied by a commercial outlet crisis that threatens to severely burden US farmers' warehouses.

Declining exports, global demand diverted elsewhere

The paradox is obvious: while global demand for maize remains solid, many importing countries are avoiding US origin, in retaliation against the protectionist measures launched by Washington. The consequence is a diversion of trade flows to alternative suppliers, first and foremost Brazil and Ukraine, which are gaining ground in global competition.

The figures are telling. The US, according to IGC estimates, will lose about 6 percentage points of market share globally. Exports will drop to 65.2 million tonnes, accentuating the difficulty of US operators in placing an unmanageable production surplus abroad. Despite the high demand for corn for livestock use - with a forecast of 749.3 million tonnes for 'feed use' in 2025-26, up 2.4 % - US silos remain full, and the scope for relieving stocks through exports is increasingly limited.

Competition grows: Brazil and Ukraine in the lead

Meanwhile, the main international competitors are strengthening their market presence. Brazil, aided both by an expansion of cultivated areas and increasingly high production yields, is consolidating double-digit growth in the 2024-25 marketing year. A further jump of 2.7 % is expected for 2025-26, with production reaching 131 million tonnes.

Ukraine, too, despite the difficult context of the ongoing conflict, is increasing its sowings and heading towards a production of 30 million tonnes, marking a progress of 11.7%. Completing the picture of fierce global competition are Argentina and the European Union, with harvests estimated at 59.1 million tonnes (+11.6%) and 62 million tonnes (+4.4%) respectively.

Global maize towards new records

Overall, the combination of the abundant US harvest and expanding production in the world's other major players will lead to a new record in global maize production. The IGC estimates global output for the 2025-26 marketing year at 1.27 billion tonnes, up 4.4 per cent year-on-year.

However, for American farmers, the record is no cause for celebration. On the contrary, it translates into an unparalleled oversupply crisis, amplified by geopolitical and trade tensions. The message for Washington is clear: the duty policy has a price, and the ones paying it - at least for now - are US producers.