Looking ahead

Duties, taxes, rules and privacy: Big tech squeezed between Trump and the EU

If the negotiations between the EU and the US fail, digital companies will come under fire. After the announcement of the exemption for smartphones and PCs, hypothesis of new tariffs on chips within a few months

4' min read

4' min read

Few industries have courted Donald Trump with the assiduity of Big Tech. Millions donated to his inauguration ceremony, visits to the private residence at Mar-a-Lago and the White House. Bombastic announcements, more or less credible, from Apple as well as OpenAi, about domestic investments of hundreds of billions in homage to the America First agenda. And tones from followers of his causes, from Amazon's Jeff Bezos, who on the eve of the election withdraws his Washington Post's endorsement of Democrat Kamala Harris, to Meta's Mark Zuckerberg, who denounces Corporate America's lack of virility.

Yet few industries have seen their priorities more neglected to date. Trade protectionism, constantly evolving between announcements and partial retreats, clashes with the nature of particularly globalised companies like technology. With yet another turnaround Trump has for now exempted from global reciprocal duties - first and foremost the very high ones against China - many electronics (smartphones, PCs, semiconductor technologies) allowing groups from Apple to Dell and Nvidia to breathe a sigh of relief. The damocles sword of tariffs, however, is still looming: the exemption, the White House warned, may turn out to be temporary, and new tariffs on chips are expected within a few months, which could affect the entire technology sector.

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In a climate of rising protectionism, the stakes for Silicon Valley brands are certainly very high their gadgets and development plans, the fruit of multinational networks, are under fire from price hikes; and services, which for many Big Techs are the world's export par excellence, are at the mercy of reprisals. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy expects tariffs to hurt the US e-commerce king. While they threaten to derail the data centre and artificial intelligence strategies of Nvidia and Alphabet.

The comparison with the EU

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The duel with Europe is emblematic of the many risks. The EU, albeit amid divisions, could seriously consider targeted levies on US digital and tech leaders if there are no agreements to defuse transatlantic tensions. Just today EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic will be in Washington for negotiations. But the assessment of the European finance ministers is very cautious. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that if the dialogue fails, the EU could, for example, apply a tax on the collection of digital advertising that would hit Meta to Google. It would also be a response to Big Tech's tax practices under accusation, such as non-payment of VAT.

Dazi Trump, von der Leyen: "Senza intesa tasseremo le Big Tech"

Brussels has already made it clear that it does not intend to give in when it comes to legislation, regulation, consumer rights and privacy: protections that the United States considers discriminatory or, in Trump's words, forms of 'extortion'. The harshest attitude towards the tech giants has already manifested itself with the Digital Markets Act, which targeted their overwhelming power: last month the Commission accused Alphabet - Google's parent company - of violating it and admonished Apple. In the EU's arsenals there is also the Anti-coercion instrument that can delay licences, limit access to public contracts, impose restrictions on intellectual property, and block investments.

On balance, US technology brands are the real engine of American commercial strength on the international stage, of an economy that has long been dedicated to services rather than manufacturing. And which no amount of protectionism, analysts warn, can really alter. With Europe, the US boasts strong surpluses in services, in 2023 amounting to EUR 109 billion a year compared to a deficit of EUR 157 billion in goods. "When we discuss countermeasures all options are on the table," said EU Economy Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis in reference to the US surplus in services, especially digital.

The White House choices

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Even on the domestic front, Big Tech appears uncomfortable in the face of Trump's agenda. The crusade against immigration may make it difficult to attract brains. Draconian cuts in government funding may undermine research and innovation, from Ai to quantum computing. Trump's historical ambivalence towards industry giants also sees the administration going down a path of tightening regulations in its own way today. Already, the government will be in the field in an antitrust trial that has the dismemberment of Meta and settlements remain to be seen. It is no coincidence that the collective market cap of Apple, Meta, Amazon and Google (Alphabet) has recently lost up to a fifth of its value.

There is no doubt that, in the cauldron of Washington politics, it is the chaotic tariff game with China that worries Big Tech the most. The White House has yes exempted electronics from 125% duties imposed on Beijing. It has, however, left in place a 20% tariff imposed for its role in the fentanyl trade. And it is in China that a company like Apple still churns out 80% of its iPhones. The exemption also stopped additional duties against all partners, including other crucial Asian tech countries (from Taiwan to Malaysia). Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, however, has already announced that 'in a month or two' the industry will have to deal with duties on semiconductors. Lutnick cited ongoing 'contacts' between Washington and Beijing, although Trump himself has put on the brakes. The game is wide open and eyes are already on the reaction of global stock exchanges.

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