Duties effect: Lombardy's growth revised downwards
GDP 2025 at +0.8% thanks to services, industry's added value falling. Spada: 'Uncertainty is the enemy of business'
by Luca Orlando
3' min read
3' min read
Industry is hurting, services are moving forward slowly. The result, for 2025, is a downward revision of Lombardy's GDP growth estimates, seen increasing by only 0.8%, three decimal places less than the estimates made at the beginning of the year.
Weighed down, the Assolombarda research centre states, is 'the extreme uncertainty that characterises the global economic and trade context, aggravated by the chaotic and unpredictable protectionist policy adopted by the Trump administration, as well as the precarious balances brought about by the conflicts that are still ongoing'.
The situation is not dissimilar for Milan, which sees a 2025 GDP growth of 1%, two decimals less than the January assessment.
"Uncertainty,' comments Alessandro Spada, President of Assolombarda, 'is the enemy of companies: it blocks investment and compromises growth. Duties, even if only announced, affect the confidence of entrepreneurs, with inevitable negative repercussions. If there were to be a trade war, billions of euros of exports would be at risk: just think of the value of Lombardy's exports to the USA, which amount to 13.7 billion euros. For this reason, our appeal is to find an agreement with the US at the European level as soon as possible and, at the same time, to forge partnerships to open up new markets. We also reiterate the need to take action to lower the cost of energy and to stimulate investment by putting more resources into tools such as Industry 4.0. We must do everything we can to safeguard our manufacturing, which was already in difficulty in 2024: it is a strategic element for the social stability of the territory and the country'.
Lombardy's expansion for the current year, although weak, will benefit from a recovery in consumption and support from services. At the same time, the negative phase in manufacturing will continue in 2025: the hoped-for rebound in foreign demand is in fact called into question by the fallout from American trade policies. The forecast for Lombardy's GDP is still above the national average, +0.6% in 2025 (also revised from the +0.7% estimated at the beginning of the year), although it is more affected by the evolution of the global context. Looking at the coming months, positive signs are coming from the return of inflation (net of possible tightening due to the trade war) and the ECB's further cuts in interest rates, which will favour consumption and investments respectively.
