Early election: the race is wide open on the centre-right, but Meloni holds the upper hand

Officially, the position is as Giorgia Meloni has reiterated on recent public occasions: the term will run until October 2027, the natural end of the parliamentary term. But very few people believe this. Because the date that has been circulating for weeks between Palazzo Chigi and the Transatlantico is a different one: spring 2027. With a possible timeframe ranging from April to June.

The ‘legislature-focused’ faction comprises, above all, allies Antonio Tajani and Matteo Salvini. The former explicitly sounded out his MPs at a Forza Italia meeting last week. The response was almost unanimous: to see it through to the end. Forza Italia is in the midst of a transition towards the liberal, rights-focused party envisaged by Marina Berlusconi. Tajani’s leadership is not openly being challenged, although there is an increasingly critical faction ranging from the governor of Calabria, Roberto Occhiuto, to the Minister for the Public Administration, Paolo Zangrillo. The victory in Calabria over the Vannaccia candidate has not entirely allayed fears of a loss of votes in the regions. And the appeal of moderate Euro-Atlanticists within a coalition that is shifting further and further to the right risks being further diminished in an election campaign that promises to be a no-holds-barred affair.

Concerns are even greater within the Carroccio. The Lega is the political party that, according to the polls, is paying the highest price for Vannacci’s entry into the political arena with Futuro Nazionale. Salvini knows that an election held in the near future would reveal a party stuck at around 8 per cent, a world away from the 34 per cent it achieved in the 2019 European elections. Going to the polls now would mean cementing this decline and losing bargaining power in the drawing up of candidate lists, especially in the North where competition from Fdi has become direct.

The only party that appears to be enjoying almost the same level of popularity as in 2022 is Fratelli d’Italia, which has remained steady in the polls at around 28 per cent, the undisputed leading party. This is down to the Prime Minister’s personal popularity and the announcements she is making throughout this extremely complicated period, ranging from the scrapping of the car tax to the price cap on fuel imposed on oil companies – a measure she sought and secured through her moral suasion.

The final decision will be hers, once 8 October has passed and the hurdle of the final secret ballot on the new electoral law has been cleared. A number of factors are tipping the balance in favour of early elections in the spring: the waning of the Government’s reformist momentum with the end of the NRRP, the abandonment of the ‘premierato’ system and the autonomy rendered meaningless by the Constitutional Court; an economy threatened by very dark clouds, with inflation and energy shocks demanding swift action to protect households and businesses, whilst public finances leave no room for manoeuvre; and no prospect of a short-term resolution to the many international crises – quite the contrary. All these thorns in the side are leading the Prime Minister to believe she can capitalise on her support before the wear and tear of power and the most divisive issues erode the coalition.