The issue of early elections: 43.8 per cent of MPs’ pension entitlements are at risk if the election takes place before April 2027

The issue of early elections is causing no small amount of concern amongst MPs. In theory, the 19th legislature is due to end on 13 October 2027, so the next general election should take place in the autumn of next year. But the fear held by many is that the rush to pass the electoral law could give the government the opportunity to play the early election card (subject to the Head of State’s approval, given that the decision on any early dissolution of Parliament rests with the President of the Republic). Perhaps to spare the new government from having to rush through the drafting of the 2028 budget by the end of the year (as indeed happened in 2022). There is, however, one unknown factor, namely the pensions of MPs.

The law stipulates that members of parliament become entitled to a pension if they have served for 4 years, 6 months and one day. As the current parliamentary term began on 13 October 2022, the calculation is straightforward: first-time MPs must remain in office until 14 April 2027. Members of Parliament remain in office until the new Houses are sworn in, which usually takes place two weeks after the election. Therefore, early elections should be held no earlier than Sunday 4 April 2027 if the pension entitlements of newly elected MPs are to be safeguarded.

This is also because there are quite a few new MPs in this parliamentary term: 43.8 per cent, or 265 out of 605. And the party with the highest proportion is none other than that of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni: Fratelli d’Italia stands at 66.1% (almost two in three MPs). These figures are not comparable to those of Forza Italia (34.7 per cent) and the Lega (23.3 per cent). But even within the opposition – among the PD (38.1%), M5S (39.2%) and AVS (50%) – there are quite a few first-time MPs who may have no intention of standing for re-election before they have earned the right to a pension.

However, there is the issue of the 2027 local elections. Next spring, elections will be held in major cities such as Rome, Milan, Naples, Turin and Bologna, where the centre-left has traditionally been strong. The law stipulates that local elections must take place between 15 April and 15 June. Therefore, should general elections be brought forward to early April, the government risks the local elections having a knock-on effect that works against it.