ECB: Economy holds up in the third quarter too, despite the energy shock

Outlook has improved since June. AI activities are on the rise

(Il Sole 24 Ore Radiocor) - “The economy showed resilience in the second quarter of 2026,

despite the adverse circumstances caused by the energy crisis. Growth was widespread across different countries and sectors. This trend is expected to continue

‘in the third quarter’. The ECB states this in its Economic Bulletin, noting that ‘the strength of investment in artificial intelligence has offset the difficulties caused by the conflict in the Middle East’. The Eurotower points out that ‘the manufacturing sector continues to perform strongly against a backdrop of increased public spending on defence and infrastructure’ and that ‘consumer confidence has rebounded from the lows it had reached, contributing to the recovery of the services sector from the initial energy shock’. Furthermore, in digital services, “there has been an increase in activities related to artificial intelligence in business investment and exports”. The ECB notes that ‘over the short term, the outlook for growth has improved compared with the June 2026 projections, reflecting, in particular, the resilience of private consumption and public spending’, whilst “in the medium term, consumption is expected to be supported by the gradual decline in energy prices and the strength of the labour market”. Growth “will increasingly be driven by business investment and investment in residential construction” and “the expansion of exports is expected to benefit from rising external demand, but is held back by competitiveness challenges and uncertainty over global trade policies”.

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