Europe

ECB, rates unchanged at 2%. Lagarde: 'Reform check list to European leaders'

In Frankfurt the decision of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank

La presidente della Banca centrale europea Christine Lagarde

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

3' min read

Translated by AI
Versione italiana

Firm rates, as expected. The European Central Bank left the deposit rate unchanged at 2%, the main refinancing rate at 2.15%, and the marginal lending rate at 2.40%. These are the levels reached with the last cut in June 2025, after a manoeuvre to reduce the cost of official very short-term credit by a total of two percentage points in one year. The decision was unanimous.

La Bce lascia i tassi di interesse invariati al 2%

"Good economic resilience"

The communiqué issued at the end of the meeting explains that the "updated assessment" of the macroeconomic situation "again confirms that inflation is expected to stabilise at the 2% target in the medium term". There is therefore no reason to change the monetary policy approach.

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"The economy," the note continues, "continues to show good resilience in a difficult global environment. Low unemployment, strong private sector balance sheets, the gradual implementation of public spending on defence and infrastructure, together with the favourable effects of past interest rate cuts, are supporting growth. At the same time, the outlook is still uncertain, mainly due to uncertain trade policies and ongoing geopolitical tensions worldwide'.

A checklist for competitiveness

The ECB emphasised the resilience of economic activity: 'Rising labour incomes', even in a market where demand is cooling, together with 'a lower household savings rate should support consumption', explained ECB President Christine Lagarde, while government spending on defence and infrastructure should further help domestic demand.

The challenge posed by tariffs and the rise of the euro against the dollar, however," he continued, "underlines the need to strengthen the euro area. In preparation for the European meeting on 12 February on reforms for competitiveness, the ECB has therefore prepared a checklist of important measures to achieve this goal: capital market union, the digital euro, promotion of innovation, 'open' strategic autonomy, simplification of legislation and strengthening of the institutional framework are the central points.

Price dynamics "in a good position"

Inflation pressures are easing further, although "the contribution to overall wage growth of wage components additional to negotiated wages remains uncertain". "In addition, the inflation outlook continues to be more uncertain than usual due to the volatile global policy environment". In any case, price dynamics remain "in a good position".

The weak January figure, 1.7 per cent, is 'idiosyncratic', anomalous, and the causes 'are bound to be absorbed': 'Nothing,' she concluded, 'that would change our basic forecasts'. The risk picture is therefore 'broadly balanced': although the ECB no longer indicates where the balance of risks is tilted, Lagarde explained, the current situation shows that 'we are not observing a reduction in the amplitude of risks'.

Euro/dollar in long-term range

On the exchange rate, in particular, Lagarde recalled that the currency is not a target for monetary policy, although its level is monitored for its effects on growth and inflation. The decline of the dollar, in particular, is not a recent phenomenon but started in March 2025, and is therefore 'embedded in our projections'. The euro/dollar, he added, is nevertheless moving within the range consistent with the long-term average.

The ECB, it can be concluded, is not currently concerned about exchange rate developments, although it does take them into account in its overall assessment of the situation.

A liquidity assessment soon

The ECB is also assessing the liquidity situation in the euro area. Bearing in mind the constraints of monetary policy, Lagarde explained, 'we are reviewing our liquidity framework. In particular, the repo lines, to be distinguished from the swap lines, are being reviewed: we are redefining them, widening access and making them more attractive to other national central banks outside the euro area and outside Europe. It is a work in progress and I hope to be able to announce something more in the coming days'.

Next decisions "meeting after meeting"

The forthcoming decisions will continue to be taken "on the basis of the incoming data" and "meeting after meeting" without committing to a pre-determined path for interest rates: "The Governing Council's decisions on interest rates," the statement continues, "will be based on an assessment of the inflation outlook and associated risks, taking into account new economic and financial data, as well as the dynamics of core inflation and the intensity of monetary policy transmission.

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