Germany

Baden-Württemberg elections: Greens ahead of Cdu, AfD grows

In Germany's industrial heartland, the first election test of the year immediately puts Chancellor Friedrich Merz under pressure

by Angelica Migliorisi

8 March 2026

I membri dei Verdi reagiscono ai sondaggi all’uscita dalle urne durante una festa elettorale del partito dei Verdi (Die Gruenen) in occasione delle elezioni regionali del Baden-Württemberg a Stoccarda, Germania, l’8 marzo 2026. EPA/RONALD WITTEK

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

4' min read

Translated by AI

Versione italiana

In Baden-Württemberg, one of Germany's richest and most industrial Länder, the first electoral test of the year hits Chancellor Friedrich Merz straight away. In the projections released after the polling stations closed, Cem Özdemir's Greens are ahead of the Christian Democrats of the Cdu, while AfD also consolidates its advance in the industrial heart of the German West. Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen (Zdf), one of Germany's main public broadcasters, shows the Greens at 31.5%, Manuel Hagel's Cdu follows at 30.5%, gaining 6.4%, while AfD's ultra-right rises to 18% (+8.3%), the Social Democrats (Spd) reach 5.5%, the Liberals (Fdp) 4.5% and the Left (LInke) 4.5%.

Merz has still not been seen after the results, although the federal leaders of most parties have already appeared before the cameras. In his place, the chief of staff, Thorsten Frei, from Baden-Württemberg: 'Manuel Hagel was exactly the right candidate and is the right Land President for the Cdu in Baden-Württemberg,' he said. He went on to emphasise that he had run a busy campaign and that therefore 'this cannot have been the reason' for his failure to win.

"The Greens - he added - have clearly resorted to underhand tactics and tried to discredit our leading candidate. The reference is to a video circulated by some Grünen representatives during the election campaign in which Hagel, as he later admitted,made comments about underage schoolgirls.

For his part, Hagel was quick to congratulate his opponent. "We wanted to become the strongest political force. Judging by the current situation, this is not the case. The Greens and Mr Özdemir have achieved significant results. I congratulate the party and you personally, Mr Özdemir,' he said. According to the projections, the field of possible majorities in the new Landtag narrows and the continuation of a cooperation between the Greens and the Cdu, who have administered the Land together for years, remains a plausible scenario. Hagel, however, has not yet pronounced himself on his possible participation in a state government under Özdemir.

The end of the Winfried Kretschmann era (the only Green minister-president Germany has ever had so far) would thus seem not to have sanctioned the automatic return of the conservatives to the leadership of the Land.Baden-Württemberg, on the other hand, was a special watch because it marked the transition from a Green leader in government since 2011 to a new phase, with Özdemir called upon to defend his party's supremacy and Hagel committed to bringing the Cdu back to the top of the region. Kretschmann said he was happy to be able to step down, adding that 'as far as our tasks are concerned, we are leaving behind a well-run organisation' and that Özdemir is a 'talented successor who possesses a lot of experience, vision and prudence; it is a pleasure to leave office under his leadership'.

The advance of the AfD of Markus Frohnmaier certainly does not go unnoticed. In 2021 the party stood at 9.7%, today's projections put it at around 18%, almost double that. A sign that the extreme right is able to consolidate even outside the eastern Länder, where it had built up its strongest results, and that the political and social unease - reflected in its advance - is creeping in even in an area like Baden-Württemberg, one of the pillars of the German automotive industry, which is the birthplace of giants such as Daimler and Porsche and home to groups such as Mercedes-Benz and Bosch. One of the places, above all, that has made the crisis of the German industrial model most visible, put under pressure by competition from Chinese manufacturers of electric vehicles, weak demand and a national recovery that is still slow after two years of recession.

The Spd, the CDU's ally in the federal government, is just above the 5% threshold, with Andreas Stoch announcing his resignation from the leadership of the Baden-Württemberg party and the regional parliamentary group. The Fdp and Linke are below the threshold.

The leader of the Liberals, Christian Dürr, spoke of a 'bitter election night'. He told Ard, Germany's other major public broadcaster, along with Zdf, that the party was put under pressure because of the head-to-head between the Cdu and the Greens. But this is not the end of the Fdb: 'We started from scratch after the federal elections and I knew it would be a marathon, not a sprint,' he stressed.

For Merz, the fact that the CDU is not projected to overtake in a Land considered contestable is a problem. The discontent already present in a part of the conservative camp - as the federal government continues to grapple with reforms perceived as slow and an economy struggling to regain momentum - could in fact worsen. And we are only at the first of five regional elections this year, with Rhineland-Palatinate called to vote on 22 March.

For the Greens, on the contrary, the advantage in the projections has a value that goes beyond mere placement. Managing to defend first place after fifteen years of regional leadership meant preventing Kretschmann's exit from the scene from coinciding with the end of a long political season. The German game is much more open than the conservatives hoped.