Electoral law, how it changes and why Meloni wants a new one

Habemus Melonellum. Or rather Stabilicum in the name of government stability, as the blue house is beginning to call the system with which we should go to the polls in 2027. After a sort of conclave in the Fratelli d'Italia headquarters in Via della Scrofa that went on all night, the majority parties have finally reached an agreement on the reform of the electoral law to overcome the single-member constituencies of the Rosatellum in favour of a proportional system with a majority prize for the list or coalition that exceeds 40% of the votes and with a 3% barrier. A tightening desired by Giorgia Meloni, and impressed on her own in the last few days, to secure the agreement on the rules to go to the polls in 2027 before the referendum on justice on 22 and 23 March: in the event of defeat, or rather of a No vote to the separation of careers by Nordio, the internal fibrillations within the majority could in fact have caused the table to stall indefinitely.

Primum close the deal, in short. For this reason, the premier's party has renounced - as anticipated in recent days by Il Sole 24 Ore - at least two of its qualifying proposals, which are disliked by the allies. Meanwhile, in the basic text presented in the Constitutional Affairs Committees of the Chambers (it should start from Montecitorio) there is not the novelty, dear to Meloni, of the indication of the name of the premier candidate on the ballot paper. However, there is the obligation to indicate the head of the coalition at the time of the presentation of the lists, which is enough to put in trouble a wide field still lacking a leadership recognised by all the parties of the coalition. Moreover, there are no preferences in the text, which the League and Forza Italia have blocked and which, instead, Fratelli d'Italia would have liked (so much so that the proposal could be re-submitted in the form of an amendment) to escape the accusations of wanting a parliament of nominees and in general to challenge a very popular flag. In their place there will be small blocked lists, with a few recognisable names, and the agreement is that existing multi-nominal constituencies will be used, as requested in particular by Forza Italia, without having to redraw all the constituencies.

Fratelli d'Italia, on the other hand, managed to get into the text the closing rule, which was already in the renzian Italicum, of the ballot between the first two if no one reaches the 40% of the votes necessary to trigger the majority threshold. A condition for entering the second round, however, is that the first two must collect at least 35% of the votes, otherwise the system will be reproportionalised. Finally, there remains the attribution of the majority prize by means of separate lists: for the Chamber, 70 deputies are to be added until the ceiling of 230 is reached (for the Senate the numbers are halved), i.e. a percentage of seats of around 57.50%. Too much, according to the oppositions and according to the opinion of some constitutionalists, who set the 'constitutional' limit at 55% because beyond that would put the majority in the position of being able to elect the President of the Republic independently. It is true in fact that after the fourth ballot the election can still take place by majority, even if absolute and not simple, but the variables of the secret ballot and the 58 regional delegates, who may have a political majority opposite to the parliamentary one and who in any case do not answer directly to the parties, must be calculated. In short, with 55%, the majority must at least choose a candidate for the Quirinal who is not too disliked by the oppositions, beyond that it can go it alone. "In my opinion, the 55% ceiling cannot be exceeded," says constitutionalist and former PD parliamentarian Stefano Ceccanti. "The prize is given to govern, not to decide alone on the organs of guarantee. Particular attention must be paid, because in the event of an appeal the Constitutional Court can decide quickly, before the vote'.

But why change the Rosatellum if in 2022 it allowed the centre-right led by Giorgia Meloni to obtain a large majority in both chambers and if the balance between the poles has remained more or less stable since the beginning of the legislature? What has changed in the meantime, since last year's regional elections, is not so much the balance between the poles but the political offer. In 2022, the centre-right managed to win more than 80% of the uninominal constituencies provided for by the Rosatellum (37% of the total) because the centre-left presented itself divided even in three (Pd with Avs and Più Europa, M5s alone, Renzi and Calenda's Third Pole). Now that, albeit with great difficulty, Pd and M5s are trying to build a coalition together with Avs and part of the centrists (Italia Viva and Più Europa), the prospect has changed radically: all the polling institutes give as the most probable result in 2027, if one votes with the Rosatellum, a substantial draw, and therefore the absence of a certain winner.

But no voting system, of course, can establish in advance the victory of one or the other contender. And in fact, if you add up all the oppositions to the government, you can see that even with the new system the competition remains open, despite the growth of Fratelli d'Italia over 30% in recent polls. The accounts are soon done: according to the latest average of the polls made by Youtrend, the centre-right, hit by the novelty of Roberto Vannacci's party estimated at around 3%, is at 46.5% and the wide field in the current formation (Pd, M5s, Avs, Italia Viva and Più Europa) at 44.3%, a figure that would rise to 47.7 if we add the 3.4 of the "third-party" Carlo Calenda with his Action.