Electoral law: Vannacci’s challenge under the new rules

General Roberto Vannacci’s party, with the new electoral law, can currently be automatically classified as part of the ‘draw’ camp. Futuro Nazionale (at 7–8 per cent according to the latest polls) seems set to stand alone in next year’s general election unless Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s ‘vetoes’ are lifted. But if no coalition reaches the 42 per cent threshold to trigger the seat bonus, it could raise the stakes and dictate the terms for providing the centre-right with the MPs needed to secure a majority in Parliament and form a government. ‘We are already crucial to the centre-right’s victory today; with a deadlock, we will be even more so,’ explains FnV MP Rossano Sasso, who regards the 1,500 signatures to be collected in each of the multi-member constituencies (49 in the Chamber of Deputies and 26 in the Senate) in order to submit candidate lists for the forthcoming elections (the threshold has been raised to at least 6,000 signatures for those who, unlike Futuro Nazionale, do not have a representation in the mixed group).

The Stabilicum or Melonellum, has been approved definitively by the Chamber of Deputies, with the ‘Futurists’ voting against it, provides for a system that is, so to speak, two-faced (the term was coined by political scientist Roberto D’Alimonte, who first wrote about it in *Il Sole 24 Ore*): the majority bonus is triggered at 42 per cent of the vote, but if no coalition reaches this crucial threshold, the system becomes a purely proportional one, in the style of the First Republic. This is subject, of course, to any objections raised by the Constitutional Court, which could rule on the constitutionality of the law as early as January or February.

In fact, the position of Vannacci’s party appears to be one of the decisive factors in the next parliamentary term. According to the latest simulation by Youtrend, which has translated the current balance of power between the political parties into parliamentary seats, under the new electoral law the centre-right could win, securing an absolute majority in both houses of Parliament, only if Futuro Nazionale (estimated at 7.8 per cent) were included in the coalition. Without it, there would be no deadlock, but the majority would go to the broad coalition. Indeed, it would be the latter that would exceed the 42 per cent threshold.

“According to our latest poll for *Porta a Porta*, the centre-right – without Vannacci – is actually a cut above the centre-left, but at the moment neither of the two current coalitions can be certain of clearing the threshold and securing the bonus seats,” explains Antonio Noto, director of Noto Sondaggi, who adds: “The paradox of the new electoral law is that the coalitions, which are also required to nominate a prime ministerial candidate, are only relevant before the final result is known, because if none reaches 42 per cent, they may break up in search of a majority in Parliament.” And this is where Futuro Nazionale could come back into the picture. Provided, that is, that the group of Vannaccian MPs and senators is large enough to secure a majority in Parliament.

However, the repeated overtures by the ‘Futurists’ towards an alliance with the centre-right right from the start (“we are natural partners”, as Vannacci has said on several occasions) have so far failed to elicit a response from the parties in the majority. Starting with the Prime Minister’s own party. “All the polls show that without Vannacci, the centre-right cannot win. We are ready for dialogue, but we need respect from your side. The time has come to begin a serious dialogue,” reiterated Edoardo Ziello, group leader of Futuro Nazionale, in his explanation of vote in the Chamber of Deputies on the final vote on the electoral law. But Meloni, at least for now, is keeping the door shut on the general. She does not trust him. “For me, it is always far more important to win in order to govern than to win just for the sake of winning,” she stated last month to those who asked her about a possible alliance.